ECB怎麼辦?

EUR/USD 又從1.3375退回來, 已經是兩天內第二次了, 在所有其他貨幣都已經創幾個月的新高, EUR的弱勢當然很令人困惑. 有說的是ECB也要跟進數量寬鬆,所以大家寧願遠離EUR.但ECB 要做的事有什麼是大家不知道的?

ECB meeting.
1. Our baseline expectations include a 25bps cut in the refi rate to 1%, an unchanged deposit rate at 0.25% and a lengthening of maturities for the repo facility to 9-12 months from the current 6 months.

2. There could also be an announcement to purchase private sector assets. It’s very unlikely though that they will announce any form of sovereign debt purchase.

Overall though, we still expect the Fed to do more in terms of relative QE, which is supportive of our gradual EUR/$ appreciation view over the next 6 months.

Other than the ECB, we have central bank meeting in the UK where the MPC could possibly announce an expansion of its £75bn asset purchase programme. The size is highly uncertain though, but one possibility is that they will continue for now, to acquire assets at the existing pace of £25bn per month."

連BOE可能擴大QE的規模GBP都站回1.51,. EUR有什麼黑幕?

金融時報剛剛刊出IMF更正對東歐國家外債數字的估計

Red-faced IMF fixes east Europe error: The International Monetary Fund has corrected an embarrassing error that led to the publication of exaggerated estimates of the external debt levels of crisis-hit eastern European states. The ratio for the Czech Republic was cut from 236 per cent to 89 per cent and Estonia’s was reduced to 132 per cent from 210 per cent. It is understood the figure for Ukraine is also being cut to 116 per cent from 208 per cent, that Lithuania’s ratio of 425 per cent may also be recalculated and that others may follow..The IMF said on Wednesday it would verify its numbers and publish correct figures on its website as soon as they were available. “We regret any confusion that may have arisen as a result of our publication of erroneous figures.”

這對EUR應該是一個正面的消息, 總之我是long EUR, 美元的弱勢應該就缺這一塊拼圖了吧?

各國的公債殖利率在歐洲時間都跳上來,應該是BOE的擴大QE有關

台股盤中曾經殺了110點, 但尾盤竟然收平, 期貨仍然是近0.6%的正價差, 真的是欲小不易的盤

正好小i也出了一篇說故事文,連結看這裏
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/izaax/12362415

澳洲四月份就業人數預期是衰退減緩25k, 結果竟是增加27k;澳幣當然再漲,從 0.7470上到0.7560 ,雖然一度被弱勢EUR帶下來0.7510,但現在又到了今天的最高點 0.7570