55天移動平均

從三月中美元轉弱開始, 55日移動平均便是很好趨勢強度的指標, EUR在這八個月的時間裡只有四月20日幾天的時間裡曾經在55天SMA下方, AUD在七月中一度跌落但都立即拉回. 其它貨幣可以自行參考.
現在情況有點不一樣了.如上表所示, SEK的規律性還不夠高 , 但過去八個月NZD可從來沒有一天的收盤是低於55天的SMA.11/20是第一次,本週便一直與55天線掙扎, 有三天收在SMA下, 今天則正式宣告55天線失守..
可以理解中長線的部位已經鬆動了. 接下來便是AUD. RBA 十二月會議到底調不調可能已經不重要了. 要小心AUD跟著NZD下殺, trigger 是什麼並不重要, 就像現在也沒有多少人知道NZD為什麼跌破?

參考信報11/27 蘇子的外匯動態報導

隨時再殺美元淡友

昨 天是美國感恩節假期，但滙市卻出現大屠殺的恐怖場面，近期表現相對窄幅的美元兌日圓失守今年的87.11低位，創出今年新低。美元兌日圓失守87關口後已 成功觸發大量止蝕沽盤入市，使滙價破位後可以一下子跌至86.55水平，隨後滙價乏力反彈至86.9水平以上，便再被美元淡友瘋狂狙擊，最後美元兌日圓跌 至86.27低位才止跌回升。

由於日圓佔美滙指數成分達13.6%，故美元兌日圓近二個交易天的急跌，成功令到美滙指數明顯跌破74.7至75重要支持區。昨天亞洲市美滙指數最低曾見74.17水平。

不過，美滙指數要靠美元兌日圓急跌才能成功失守上述的重要支持區，這卻令筆者感到美滙指數的跌勢已到了尾聲。按照常理，美滙指數若進一步破關而下， 應該由歐羅兌美元急升所帶動才對，但前晚歐羅兌美元升破上月23日的1.506高位，再創今年高位後的升勢並不顯著，滙價破位後幾經辛苦才在美國市下半段 時間升至1.5144高位，破位後升幅達100點子也沒有，完全欠缺破位後應有的單邊市氣勢！

前晚歐羅兌美元所造的高位剛好與20星期保歷加通道的頂部阻力相若，由於滙價未能一舉突破此阻力，故不利短期走勢，昨天亞洲市及歐洲市早段歐羅兌美 元更返回1.51關口之下波動，即使昨天亞洲市美滙指數受到美元兌日圓拖累而急跌，但歐羅兌美元仍乏力升破前晚的1.5144高位，與美滙指數的表現呈背 馳不利訊號。故小心一旦美元兌日圓止跌回升，返回88阻力關口之上波動，而其他非美元貨幣亦見掉頭回落，屆時美滙指數勢必出現一個強而有力的反彈浪。

這二天歐羅兌美元突破1.506關鍵阻力，美元兌日圓失守87.11的今年低位，美元兌瑞郎亦下破1算心理關口，最低曾見0.9915水平。以上滙 價的破位，肯定令到本來看好美元的投資者被迫作出止蝕行動。外滙市場有一個特性，便是往往在美國長假期前後時間出現殺倉情況，昨天美國感恩節假期，滙市卻 出現大幅波動，相信不少早前一直死守下去的美元好倉已經被大規模屠殺了。

另外，投資市場有一個特性，便是殺完好倉後再殺淡倉，即是好淡通殺！由於市場上的美元好友已被殺得八八九九，故小心滙市隨時出現一個反轉的形態，即 美元急跌後再突然大幅回升，使眾多美元淡友走避不及。一旦市場上陸續有美元淡友需要作出止蝕時，屆時便是美元出現逆轉回升的時刻。

短期內若美元逆轉回升，相信非美元貨幣，包括日圓勢必出現一個最少三個月以上的下跌浪。至於環球股市及商品市場相信在美元回升後亦會出現顯著的調整。

執筆時美滙指數已經自74.17低位回升至74.6水平，如昨晚美滙指數在74.7以上收市，可視為美元逆轉回升的首個警號。
執筆時美滙指數已經自74.17低位回升至74.6水平，如昨晚美滙指數在74.7以上收市，可視為美元逆轉回升的首個警號。

呼應前面所說的黃金多頭現象

In a bull market, worrying about an idea being too crowded with like-minded investors is not very productive. More likely than not, it will help to eliminate you from a winning position.
At some point, when the gold market is finally reaching a top, it will, in fact, be too crowded. But we're almost nine years into this bull market in gold, and to me it seems that there are more people of the mind that "the trade" is too crowded than there are who say it isn't.

We'll know gold is overcrowded when . . .

For the long-gold trade to really become too crowded, certain events will need to occur:

• Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) will have had "bus tours" to a bunch of mines, like the tours it and other companies have arranged for different industries, particularly technology.
• The public will have to be involved in a major way, and we'll see ads on Bubblevision encouraging people to buy gold instead of prodding them to sell their jewelry, as is the case these days.
• Banks will need to find a way to put money into gold -- because no modern mania has ever ended without the banks finding a way to lose money in it.
• We will most likely need to see a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions, and a leveraged buyout or two.
• Last, BusinessWeek will have to put gold on the cover, telling us how it's the wave of the future, or some variation of that theme.

I put this list together somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but over the past couple of decades, most of these events have occurred before a big mania has ended -- be it energy in the late 1970s and early '80s, stocks in the late 1990s or real estate in the middle of this decade.
So it seems to me that what's crowded is not the long-gold trade but more likely the camp of folks who think it's too crowded.

Dollar cries out: 'Et tu, Mauritius?'

At the intersection of yellow dog and greenback, it's worth noting that the tiny island of Mauritius became the third central bank to buy gold in the past month -- specifically, 2 metric tons worth $71.7 million from the International Monetary Fund (following in the footsteps of India and Sri Lanka).I don't know what the fourth central bank will be, but I'm pretty sure there will be one.
Meanwhile, the Buttonwood column in last week's Economist, "Paper promises, golden hordes," cited the small quantity of gold that actually exists: "Two hundred metric tonnes of gold" -- that's what India bought -- "would occupy a cube of a little more than two metres on a side; it would fit into a small bedroom."
(For folks who might not know, all the gold that's ever been found would fit into two Olympic-size swimming pools!)
The column noted the psychological sea change that appears to be taking place at the central-bank level: "For bullion bulls, the implication is clear: central banks no longer trust the creditworthiness of other governments. And if they have lost confidence, private investors should do the same."
I think that pretty much sums up how the groupthink process gets started. Of course, that idea will have cut a wide swath through all levels of asset managers (witness my scenario above) before gold finally becomes too crowded and tops out.

Gold sky at morning, bonds take warning

The corollary of folks wanting to buy gold -- i.e., having no faith in dollars and other colored paper -- also has implications for the bond market. It's what I have alluded to with my shorthand nickname "the funding crisis." That the Buttonwood column took this up for discussion is potentially an early sign that the concept of a funding crisis may now be going mainstream (at least sophisticatedly so):
"Developed-country governments have attempted to control bond yields through quantitative easing and to support stock markets through ultra-low interest rates. But they cannot support their currencies as well without risking problems in the bond and equity markets. Gold's surge may indicate that investors fear the next stage of the crisis will occur in the foreign-exchange markets."
Fleckenstein on video: Bull market or just bull?
That is a succinct warning of what I believe will likely be next year's serious problem for the xera, where weakness is no longer described as just excess volatility but a genuine cause for concern.

We'll know that it's time to start paying close attention to a potential funding crisis when the bond market trades lower in lock step with the dollar trading lower. That will be an indication that the foreign-exchange market is calling the tune -- the implications being higher interest rates and, I would think, lower price-to-earnings ratios and, ultimately, a weaker economy. Dollar weakness is so widespread lately that even the Icelandic króna and the Latvian lats have been rallying against it, which suggests to me that the belief in our green paper as the world's reserve currency is being questioned seriously everywhere.

仍然沒等到USD轉強

Thanksgiving week, 上個星期CITI的Technicals 所說的週線反轉信號本週迄今仍未發生

CITI 所說週線轉弱的觀察點, 括號裡是週五收盤水準GBP 1.6515 (1.6510-15), AUD 0.9195( 0.9150/55), NZD 0.7265 ( 0.7240/45), EURAUD 1.6175 ( 1.6239) EURNZD 2.0343 ( 2.0491 )

""週一尾盤﹐中國銀行業監管機構對銀行發出嚴厲警告﹐要求其嚴格遵守資本充足率規定﹐否則將面臨處罰。這再次顯示出中國政府擔憂中國金融體系在經過一年的大肆放貸後可能正在積聚風險。""
""上海證交所美元計價的B股指數跌7.3%﹐至242.03點﹐因自從美國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)結束訪華後﹐有關中國將允許人民幣升值的預期已經消退。在週二下跌前﹐該指數本月累計上漲了25.6%。""
由於中國的因素, AUD 今天跌的比歐元多, 但由於AUD佔USD INDEX權數小, USD 轉強的跡象並不明顯.而雪梨股市因為收盤較早. 並沒有反應中國股市最後一個小時2.8%的跌幅
明天會怎麼開,是跟隨美股的平淡反應或中國, 值得觀察.依目前AUD在0.9190的水準來猜,似乎憂慮跟隨下跌的空頭比較佔上風.

USD index 的訊號

儘管USD index 本週創新低, 但Stochastic 與candle chart 的triple momentum divergence 指示USD index 有上漲的可能
Mean reversion, 55天與200天移動平均乖離過大,有修正的必要.
注意看2008十一月也曾有一次Stochastic的背離
source: CITIFX

經濟學人11/18討論人民幣

A yuan-sided argument

Nov 18th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

A yuan-sided argument

Why China resists foreign demands to revalue its currency

Shutterstock

How Will Niagara Falls Fit Through into a Garden Hose

如題,黃金,白銀的供需失衡像是尼加拉瀑布的水灌入家裏的水管了

資金集中化

前一篇所引用認為黃金漲勢將休息的三點理由,其中之一是其他貴金屬如白金和銀並沒有跟隨黃金漲勢.

其實不只是金價,其他金融市場也是如此.

11/10美國退伍軍人節,這位spider trader認為股票即將見頂, 他說

Lets get technical

以及美元反彈的可能

A short seller's dream

這體現了資金集中化的現象,使得被市場集中的對象漲勢不歇,吸引關注的眼光

為什麼有這樣的現象?

當消費者/投資人越來越精於盤算,每一塊錢都得作最有效的使用,不管是用在平日的支出(只買領導品牌的東西)或是投機上(最快或最可能獲得回報的標的). 所以Apple的I-Pod相關產品繼續熱賣; GS 和JP領先美國金融股的回升(領導品牌); 黃金的一枝獨秀,澳幣的漲勢不衰(當對其他資源的需求沒有如黃金般被放大檢視,或當全世界央行都在干預美元弱勢,只有RBA說尊重資金流動,強勢澳幣有助緊縮紓緩通膨,等於放任澳幣走升).

同時也別忘了當去年底的風暴讓不支倒地者的市佔率被存活下來者接收,

Best Buy (BBY) and other electronic retailers had to benefit from Circuit City disappearing. That is Schumpeter's creative destruction at work. Not very good for total employment, but it does help the profitability of the survivors.


金融圈裏, JP Chase 接收Washington Mutual, Barclays 買下Lehman Bros,這些deal 現在看來都是非常棒的投資.
Barclays' Remarkable Bargain

在台灣最新版的例子就是鴻海吃下了奇美電

ETF的大受歡迎,讓權值股在資金追捧下偏離基本面,可能也是道瓊指數強於S&P,S&P又強於Russel的另一個理由

黃金、REIT及ETF價格為何脫離實際?

Are ETFs causing a emerging market bubble?

Speculative investments in gold seen broadening

這樣集中化的現象,過去的投資經驗說""漲勢不健康"",少數強勢終將無以為繼,漲勢結束.但到底""多集中""才是臨界點?

後記,芝加哥Fed Charles Evans說超低利率將可能維持到2010年以後,

Charles Evans: Accomodative policy likely beyond 2010

這可以說是截至目前為止最露骨的"泡沫遊戲請繼續"的官方言論.應該會為接下來的漲勢再提供燃料.

黃金的正反面辯論

黃金自進入十一月以來就像衝天的火箭一般一發不可收拾連續十個交易日金價只有
昨天(11/12)才有第一個像樣的拉回,但今天就完全把昨天的黑棒補回來

看多黃金的arguments

Gold: the Big Picture
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/gold-big-picture.html

短線看空的人則說

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172786-3-reasons-not-to-believe-in-gold-s-recent-rally?source=article_sb_picks

在NY電視購物頻道注意到收購黃金的廣告大約是一個月前的事,當時黃金價格剛突破每盎司一千元的大關. 看到這些對黃金demand supply 的arguments,才知道目前這個多頭漲勢後面有多強的論述基礎,現在這樣的行情像是最後階段的噴出嗎?好像還不是.

這篇的觀察方法有點意思,值得留下來

SOMETHING BIG IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN?

http://pragcap.com/something-big-is-abou-to-happen

10 November 2009 by TPC

David Rosenberg notes the incredible lop sided trading environment. The dollar short/long equities trade has become the no-brainer trade and is beginning to appear crowded. David notes:

Looking at the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we can see some pretty interesting (and potentially disturbing) trends taking place (data for November 3rd):

• The only areas where the speculators (non-commercial accounts) are net short are in Treasuries and in the U.S. dollar. Everything else has massive net speculative longs and hence near-term vulnerable to a reversal.

• There is still a NET speculative short position in both the 10-year Treasury note of 85,551 contacts (on the Chicago Board of Trade). There are 95,648 net short contracts on the long bond too.

• But there are 29,608 net LONG positions on the 30-day Fed funds contract —down from the highs, but it means that Fed tightening is completely off the radar screen. At the same time, there are 152,311 net longs on the 2-year Treasury note, so it would seem as though we have a crowded trade among the speculators on a bear curve steepening trade.

• There is a significant net long position on the S&P 500 to the tune of 208,448 contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

• There is also a huge net speculative short position on the U.S. dollar (the ‘carry trade’). For example, on the CME, we have 24,389 net speculative long CAD positions; 50,264 net speculative long contracts on the Australian dollar, and 28,036 net longs on the Euro. These are huge numbers. What happens if/when the U.S. dollar ever undergoes a countertrend rally?

• The largest speculative long positions are in the commodity space (this is near-term bearish) … 271,564 gold contracts (a record) on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX); 44,312 net longs on silver (near-record but not quite), West Texas Intermediate oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (also a record); 10,871 net long copper contracts (a new cycle high); 5,538 net speculative long contracts on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.

Who knows how long the short dollars/long equities trade can go on, but I know when a trade is this crowded it’s generally best to step to the side and let the speculators have their fun. These sorts of lop-sided trading environments rarely end well.

失業率10.2%, 趴兔

法意很快找到前一次10.2%失業率的market implication,
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/phigroup/16086283

搭配Wallstreet Journal的反面例證

1983牛市捲土重來﹖

現

在的情形開始有點像1983年：股市在飆升﹐失業率突破10%﹐科幻電視連續劇《V星入侵》又上演了。

股市投資者不由得期待1983年重演。這一年﹐正是一場歷時18年的大牛市的開端。

目前為止﹐股市行情很像八十年代早期。1982年8月到1983年10月﹐標準普爾500指數大漲69%。今年3月9日以來﹐該指數躍升58%。兩個時代都經歷了深度衰退﹐而在深度衰退過後﹐股市往往都會快速反彈。

可惜的是﹐其他相似之處很少。

現在市場的估值已經遠不像當時那麼低。八十年代的牛市開始的時候﹐標普500指數往績市盈率不到7倍。即使在上漲69%過後﹐其市盈率也僅僅達到10倍。

最近的這一輪上漲行情開始的時候﹐本益比為13倍﹐現在已經膨脹到接近19倍﹐而其長期平均水平為16倍。

失業率頭一次達到10.2%是在1983年4月﹐當時已經在準備下降了。而現在看來﹐未來幾個月失業率可能還要保持漲勢。

另外﹐1980年代牛市開始的時候﹐美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的基準利率為11%﹐這意味著它只要下調利率﹐就能夠再次提振市場。而在今天﹐聯邦基金目標利率處在接近於零的水平。

當時美國的嬰兒潮一代正處在掙錢能力和消費能力都最高的時候﹐現在這些人已經損失了數萬億美元的淨資產﹐退休金與醫療福利也都不確定。

1983年的時候﹐美國消費者一輪為期20年的負債積累還沒有開始。當時的家庭負債佔可支配收入的62%﹐這是自六十年代就一直保持的水平。

現在這一比率是122%﹐這還是在過去兩年債務增長停滯的情況下。

現在的監管與稅收前景或許也跟1983年不同。歷史證明﹐如果提高稅收、嚴格監管﹐市場能夠承受﹐但華爾街各公司會痛苦不已。

Miller Tabak首席經濟策略師格林豪斯(Dan Greenhaus)上週五告訴客戶說﹐通脹率在上升﹐失業率在上升﹐稅收在增加﹐監管在加強﹐而債務在下降﹐1983年可不是這等情形。
_________________________________________
_________________________________________

我自己的感覺比較接近下面這一篇Wallstreet Journal

美聯儲撐腰 股市有遠慮無近憂

先

說壞消息：經濟疲軟。

再說好消息：經濟疲軟。

奇怪的是﹐讓很多投資者對長期前景感到擔憂﹐而讓部分投資者對短期前景感到鼓舞的﹐都是經濟疲軟這個相同的問題。其原因在於﹐艱難的經濟形勢要求美聯儲(Federal Reserve)將其短期利率目標維持在接近於零的水平﹐並繼續向金融體系注入大量資金。

這對股市來說是好事﹐因為來自美聯儲的資金最終會進入金融市場﹐也因為廉價資金會讓融資成本保持在低水平﹐從而推高公司的利潤。

上週四﹐因週三美聯儲宣佈將把利率保持在低水平﹐股市大幅上漲。週五失業率達到10.2%的消息傳來﹐股市還是實現了一定幅度的上漲。10月末11月初﹐市場多次劇烈起伏﹐原因之一在於﹐政府干預能不能讓經濟增長勢頭保持下去﹐讓投資者感到擔憂。

道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)上週五收於10023.42點﹐較一週以前上漲3.2%﹐較年初上漲14.2%。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經濟學家對全球現金流在整體經濟活動中的比重進行了衡量。受全球各國央行注入的大量資金推動﹐現在這個指標已經達到30年前摩根士丹利開始追蹤該指標以來的最高水平。

所以﹐雖然銷售、就業和信貸等基本經濟引擎依舊萎靡不振﹐但廉價資金的持續擴張﹐意味著股市中的一個基本支柱仍然毅立不倒。

一些投資者擔心﹐到某一天﹐所有這些干預可能會帶來不可持續的赤字﹐或在垃圾債券、發展中國家股市或大宗商品市場中催生新的泡沫。但這是以後的問題。

美 國投資管理公司Cumberland Advisors的總裁科托克(David Kotok)說﹐我們先吃飯﹐再作餐後演說。一段低利率時期就在前面﹐這是市場喜歡的。科托克重倉投資股市﹐表示市場可以一直漲到明年春季或夏季。他相信 ﹐即便銷售收入的改善仍舊不多﹐但在公司成本削減措施的推動下﹐利潤也可以繼續高於預期。

投資者對形勢的看法大相徑庭。一些人非常悲觀﹐相信政府的巨額赤字和巨額借款會很快扼殺市場的反彈﹐並導致嚴重的通貨膨脹﹐而如果刺激措施過快退出﹐又會導致通貨緊縮。另外一些人則持樂觀態度﹐他們相信﹐經濟和股市正在進入一輪懷疑派無法理解的為時長久的復蘇。

一些人夾在兩派之間﹐對今後的事情感到擔心﹐但當前仍在努力獲利。這群人數量驚人。

最近幾十年的歷史可供參照。低利率可以帶來繁榮﹐但如果利率過低的局面持續得太久﹐則有可能帶來痛苦。

最近的一個前車之鑒是1982到2000年的大牛市。1970年代﹐由於嚴重的通貨膨脹﹐股市受到壓制。1981年﹐美聯儲將隔夜利率目標上調至20%﹐打破了通脹循環。通脹率終於逐步下降﹐在這種情況下﹐美聯儲得以穩步下調利率﹐孵育了經濟的長期增長和股市的長期上揚。

這一大牛市最後在2000年終結。一些投資者認為﹐這是因為美聯儲讓利率和資金成本過低﹐催生了科技股泡沫﹐後來又有房地產泡沫。

2001年到2003年的歷次降息﹐幫助形成了2007年前的一輪牛市﹐但這輪牛市中獲得的漲幅﹐在不到兩年的時間里旋即灰飛煙滅。

接下來幾個月﹐投資者可能會緊盯美聯儲發出的信號﹐看它打算在利率方面採取何種措施。

首先﹐美聯儲將開始修改常規政策聲明中的措辭﹐逐步提升廉價資金時代結束的可能性。它會減弱購買債券、向經濟體注入現金的力度。最後它會加息。

隨著這一過程的展開﹐股市大幅下降的風險將會增加﹐投資者的緊張情緒也會隨之增加。這是因為美聯儲的動作是過早還是過晚﹐難以判斷。考慮到近期經歷的事情﹐央行人士和投資者都會擔憂出現泡沫的風險﹐以及操之過急、使經濟再度衰退的風險﹐就像1930年代晚期的美聯儲那樣。

摩根士丹利經濟學家安德烈奧普洛斯(Spyros Andreopoulos)說﹐這讓央行處於一種非常非常艱難的境地﹐因為你不希望在復蘇確立之前加息﹐同樣你也不希望讓新的資產泡沫產生。

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我也很厭惡央行為吹泡沫的人擦屁股,這樣的行為只是讓我孩子的未來更加危險,但身在這個與別人競爭績效的行業裡,只能盼望我的動作比別人快, 別成為最後一隻老鼠.

美國“無就業增長復蘇”又添新證

中文華爾街日報在11/6 NFP之前就做了這篇,放在這裡跟前一篇比較

投

資者可能會就這是否為一場沒有就業增長的經濟復蘇展開爭論﹐但事實已經給出了肯定的回答。

更多的證據將在週五上午出現﹐屆時美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)將發佈10月份就業數據。經濟學家們估計﹐這個月的非農就業人數會減少175,000人﹐而失業率將升至9.9%﹐創下1983年以來的最高水平。

華爾街上的老生常談是﹐就業是一項滯後指標﹐但情況並非總是如此。這項指標的改善只是在以往兩次經濟衰退後出現的復蘇中才大幅滯後。

而在第二次世界大戰至1982年期間的8次經濟衰退中﹐平均而言﹐非農就業人數降至最低、失業率升至最高水平的情況都出現在經濟衰退結束後不到一兩個月。

假設像大多數經濟學家認為的那樣﹐本輪經濟衰退從技術上說已於2009年6月份結束﹐那麼當前的經濟復蘇已經是一場沒有就業增長的復蘇。

假如非農就業人數10月份繼續下降﹐那將是這一數據自6月份以來至少第四個月下降。鑒於首次申請失業救濟H數依然居高不下﹐非農就業人數停止下降可能還需幾個月。

High Frequency Economics的經濟學家謝弗德森(Ian Shepherdson)說﹐非農就業人數要有顯著增長﹐首次申請失業救濟人數的四週移動平均值需下降近15萬人才行﹐該數值目前為523,750人。而 美國首次申請失業救濟人數用了7個月時間才減少13.5萬人。照這個下降速度﹐如果謝弗德森所言不謬﹐美國非農就業人數可能至少要7個月後才能顯著增長。

經濟學家們平均預計﹐美國失業率將在2010年2月升至最高點﹐即經濟衰退假定結束後的八個月。

甚至這一預測可能也太過樂觀了。《華爾街日報》的最新調查顯示﹐經濟學家們預計﹐美國今後好幾個季度折合成年率的國內生產總值(GDP)增長率都將不足3%。

如 果經濟按這一速度增長﹐鑒於非農就業人數和GDP之間的歷史關係﹐在威斯康星大學(University of Wisconsin)的經濟學家陳庚辛(Menzie Chinn)看來﹐2010年整個第二季度﹐美國非農就業人數都將繼續下降。而失業率通常都會在非農就業人數觸底後升至最高點。

那些永久性失業者或並非出於個人意願從事非全職工作的人在美國人口中所佔比例已達創紀錄高點這一事實﹐還未被考慮進上述評估中。而這一事實表明﹐美國的勞動力大軍中還有大量閑散人員。這雖然對經濟增長是個巨大不利因素﹐但卻會使利率保持在低水平﹐低利率應該能使股市受益。

10.2%失業率,然後...

十月份的NFP減少19萬人,終於回到多頭盼望已久的20萬門檻以下,失業率也在千呼萬喚中正式攀上了兩位數.加拿大的就業數字則比預期的增加一萬人差了不少,實際是減少了四萬兩千人.加幣對美金由1.0650跳上1.0750.

因為去看洋基遊行,沒有整天坐在螢幕邊看行情.但在出發前觀察到期貨只是開低0.65%等待現貨市場的反應. 便在whiteboard上留言,認為這正是測試利空及持股信心的好機會.以10月21日銀行股大跌那天為例,在一片利多數字中只因為一個分析師調低Wells Fargo 的評等,就能讓Wells Fargo 跌5%,拖累大盤在兩個小時內下跌1.5&.(見10/24的文章)

如今這樣一個令人意外的數字,市場反應相對平淡,週線EUR停在公佈前的1.4870水準(星期五亞洲曾到過1.49殺到1.4820以下);AUD比公佈前的0.9150還要強(NFP公佈後AUD確實曾殺到0.911的低點,但週線停在0.9180);GBP1.6580殺到1.6520,週線收在1.6610; USDZAR 由公佈前7.52上到7.59,收在7.53.就表示市場持有部位的信心非常強勁.為什麼??或許是因為Fed表示仍將維持超低美金利率一段相當時間,讓美元空頭有恃無恐.

Weekend G7 meeting 一樣是non event,到亞洲星期一時間傳來IMF認為美元目前的價值仍然高估. (這有什麼好意外的?連我這種人都早就看空了)項莊舞劍,意在沛公.IMF是美國養的,現在只是替美國發聲要亞洲國家升值.

就像Fed 會後, Barclays Capital的Barry Knapp所說 "Game on for the carry trade"".

New York honors there newest champion

一向不喜歡湊熱鬧,但這是Yankees 九年來第一次拿World Championship,抱著姑且一看的心情跟同事一起去City Hall 前面人擠人.
是我少見多怪,或是NY City 真是辦Parade的高手?即使downtown只有不到五度的低溫,沸騰的情緒讓我從頭開心到最後.身處於面Broadway第一排的七樓裡,都能感受這樣high的感覺,站在大街上的人群該有多高興?看著碎紙片和捲筒衛生紙從大樓窗戶丟出來在風裡盤旋---紐約人,你們真的很幸福.

印度飆出黃金天價

黃金一天之內從1060以下飆上1085,印度向IMF買了200噸黃金,新聞一出黃金價格就如脫韁野馬,

The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 metric tonnes of gold to India’s central bank, making $6.7bn which it will use to shore up its long-term finances and subsidise loans to poor countries. India’s central bank is the first to buy from the IMF since the Fund put 403.3 tonnes of its stockpile up for sale in September. The IMF made more money than it initially expected, selling the metal to the Reserve Bank of India gradually over the past two weeks at an average market price of around $1,045 an ounce.

FT 的Lex 作了以下的comment
Most investors tend to make a virtue out of diversification. But when the asset holder is a central bank, and the assets in question are US Treasuries, few like to shout about it. Yesterday’s curt announcement from India’s Reserve Bank that it was swapping $6.7bn of dollars for 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund’s vaults did not mention the D-word. The RBI purchases gold under IMF’s limited gold sales programme - Reserve Bank of India" exercise was described simply as “reserves management”. Move along, nothing to see.

True, this is modest in the context of a $286bn foreign exchange pool, Asia’s fourth largest. It raises the India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves share of gold from 3.6 per cent of reserves to just over 6 per cent. And it is opportunistic, as much as strategic. After years of net selling, other central banks have started to sit on their bullion. Precious metals consultancy GFMS forecasts net sales of just 50 tonnes this year, the lowest total since 1988. The IMF, which announced plans to offload 403 tonnes in September, is the only big seller around.But the exchange is telling, nonetheless. Since a balance of payments shock in the early 90s, the RBI had been steadily offloading its gold. The reversal of that trend burnishes the yellow metal’s credentials as the ultimate reserve currency. The decline in the dollar, down 15 per cent since March against six major currencies, is neatly mirrored by a 15 per cent rise in gold. RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao may have asked himself a simple question: will the supply of gold rise as fast as the supply of dollar assets? Answer: almost certainly not.The unmasking of a new, deep-pocketed buyer took the gold market by surprise, pushing spot prices to within a whisker of the record nominal high of last month. But for the RBI, the push from the dollar was probably stronger than the pull from gold.

SCB 對黃金和這個消息的comment:

Gold has broken into new territory today, reaching a new all-time high of USD 1,087.80/oz in morning Asian trade. This move higher comes despite a weaker USD, indicating that gold is rallying in non-USD terms too (it is now only 6% off its all-time nominal high in EUR terms). The announcement that India had bought 200t from the IMF was bullish. Such a sale avoids open-market sales that would pressure prices, while drawing in a new buyer. India had not officially added to its gold reserves since 1998. While it is not entirely clear what the RBI's objectives were, the purchase continues the trend of central bank activity helping gold prices this year. Net selling by European central banks has eased, and buying by Asian central banks continues. Indeed, with gold constituting less than 2% of China's total reserves, there is plenty of upside for gold as a proportion of its reserves. Real interest rate markets have also been supportive - the US 5-year TIP yield has reached lows of 60-65bps recently. In our view, gold will continue to be driven higher by a weaker USD and the Fed's accommodative monetary policy stance, which we believe is causing investors to seek hard assets to allay concerns about the risks inherent in excessive liquidity.

Plus background to RBI decision

The IMF announced that it sold 200 tonnes (t) of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), almost half of the 403t allocation that it has approval to sell. Though the impact of this gold purchase is neutral for FX reserves (currently at USD 285bn), the quantity of gold bought is undoubtedly significant. The purchase boosts Indian gold reserves by 55% from 358t to 558t (or from USD 10.3bn to USD 17bn). Since India has not been a buyer of gold for its official reserves since the late 1990s, this huge purchase has sparked debate that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started diversifying its reserves away from USD. The argument looks stronger if we analyze the drivers of changes in the FX reserves. In FY09, of the USD 58bn decline in India.s FX reserves (from USD 309.7bn), USD 37.9bn was due to valuation changes on huge fluctuations in currency markets. Hence, the argument that increased gold holdings would mitigate these external shocks cannot be denied. However, we need to keep in mind the fact that the overall share of gold in India.s FX reserves remains limited at 5.9% (up from 3.6% before this gold purchase). Hence, any buffer against short-term fluctuations remains limited.

印度的大動作引發一連串討論,過去兩三天擔心央行打壓泡沫的憂慮,對於商用不動產在未來銀行獲利 的恐懼都因為美元轉弱而消除.

就像Rubini說的,以美元為funing currency 的carry trade, 不僅幾乎是零利率, 實際報酬率可以高到60,70%.
http://money.udn.com/wealth/storypage.jsp?f_MAIN_ID=329&f_SUB_ID=3014&f_ART_ID=198130
美國人現在是生死存亡關頭,反正炒作是美國人的本事,炒作別人的資產,泡沫破掉死的是別人, Fed才不會把利率調高.有中美聯手,這個泡沫短時間內還有的吹.

美國版養老鼠咬布袋

Warrent Buffett Joins Goldman bid for Fannie Mae Tax Credits

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB125729682025626851-lMyQjAxMDI5NTA3NDIwOTQ2Wj.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33618173/site/14081545

為了獎勵不動產商投資平價房地產,政府對所謂low-income housing developments 有tax credits, Fannie Mae 的資產項目裡也有不少這種project, 如今不少project因為發展商破產變成不良資產,沒有income自然不能獲得taxc credits.

Goldman和Buffett把腦筋動到這塊肉上,想把這些對Fannie Mae 而言仍在流血的資產買過來. (八月份 Fannie Mae仍在認列損失), 看起來像是個win-win, 但是這些錢是從納稅人的口袋搬到了Goldman和Buffett 的口袋裡.而Goldman這隻老鼠去年底差點淹死,因為美國政府的善意介入活下來, 在賺了大錢之餘回過頭來要咬政府的布袋.