印度飆出黃金天價

黃金一天之內從1060以下飆上1085,印度向IMF買了200噸黃金,新聞一出黃金價格就如脫韁野馬,

The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 metric tonnes of gold to India’s central bank, making $6.7bn which it will use to shore up its long-term finances and subsidise loans to poor countries. India’s central bank is the first to buy from the IMF since the Fund put 403.3 tonnes of its stockpile up for sale in September. The IMF made more money than it initially expected, selling the metal to the Reserve Bank of India gradually over the past two weeks at an average market price of around $1,045 an ounce.

FT 的Lex 作了以下的comment
Most investors tend to make a virtue out of diversification. But when the asset holder is a central bank, and the assets in question are US Treasuries, few like to shout about it. Yesterday’s curt announcement from India’s Reserve Bank that it was swapping $6.7bn of dollars for 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund’s vaults did not mention the D-word. The RBI purchases gold under IMF’s limited gold sales programme - Reserve Bank of India" exercise was described simply as “reserves management”. Move along, nothing to see.

True, this is modest in the context of a $286bn foreign exchange pool, Asia’s fourth largest. It raises the India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves share of gold from 3.6 per cent of reserves to just over 6 per cent. And it is opportunistic, as much as strategic. After years of net selling, other central banks have started to sit on their bullion. Precious metals consultancy GFMS forecasts net sales of just 50 tonnes this year, the lowest total since 1988. The IMF, which announced plans to offload 403 tonnes in September, is the only big seller around.But the exchange is telling, nonetheless. Since a balance of payments shock in the early 90s, the RBI had been steadily offloading its gold. The reversal of that trend burnishes the yellow metal’s credentials as the ultimate reserve currency. The decline in the dollar, down 15 per cent since March against six major currencies, is neatly mirrored by a 15 per cent rise in gold. RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao may have asked himself a simple question: will the supply of gold rise as fast as the supply of dollar assets? Answer: almost certainly not.The unmasking of a new, deep-pocketed buyer took the gold market by surprise, pushing spot prices to within a whisker of the record nominal high of last month. But for the RBI, the push from the dollar was probably stronger than the pull from gold.

SCB 對黃金和這個消息的comment:

Gold has broken into new territory today, reaching a new all-time high of USD 1,087.80/oz in morning Asian trade. This move higher comes despite a weaker USD, indicating that gold is rallying in non-USD terms too (it is now only 6% off its all-time nominal high in EUR terms). The announcement that India had bought 200t from the IMF was bullish. Such a sale avoids open-market sales that would pressure prices, while drawing in a new buyer. India had not officially added to its gold reserves since 1998. While it is not entirely clear what the RBI's objectives were, the purchase continues the trend of central bank activity helping gold prices this year. Net selling by European central banks has eased, and buying by Asian central banks continues. Indeed, with gold constituting less than 2% of China's total reserves, there is plenty of upside for gold as a proportion of its reserves. Real interest rate markets have also been supportive - the US 5-year TIP yield has reached lows of 60-65bps recently. In our view, gold will continue to be driven higher by a weaker USD and the Fed's accommodative monetary policy stance, which we believe is causing investors to seek hard assets to allay concerns about the risks inherent in excessive liquidity.

Plus background to RBI decision

The IMF announced that it sold 200 tonnes (t) of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), almost half of the 403t allocation that it has approval to sell. Though the impact of this gold purchase is neutral for FX reserves (currently at USD 285bn), the quantity of gold bought is undoubtedly significant. The purchase boosts Indian gold reserves by 55% from 358t to 558t (or from USD 10.3bn to USD 17bn). Since India has not been a buyer of gold for its official reserves since the late 1990s, this huge purchase has sparked debate that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started diversifying its reserves away from USD. The argument looks stronger if we analyze the drivers of changes in the FX reserves. In FY09, of the USD 58bn decline in India.s FX reserves (from USD 309.7bn), USD 37.9bn was due to valuation changes on huge fluctuations in currency markets. Hence, the argument that increased gold holdings would mitigate these external shocks cannot be denied. However, we need to keep in mind the fact that the overall share of gold in India.s FX reserves remains limited at 5.9% (up from 3.6% before this gold purchase). Hence, any buffer against short-term fluctuations remains limited.

印度的大動作引發一連串討論,過去兩三天擔心央行打壓泡沫的憂慮,對於商用不動產在未來銀行獲利 的恐懼都因為美元轉弱而消除.

就像Rubini說的,以美元為funing currency 的carry trade, 不僅幾乎是零利率, 實際報酬率可以高到60,70%.
http://money.udn.com/wealth/storypage.jsp?f_MAIN_ID=329&f_SUB_ID=3014&f_ART_ID=198130
美國人現在是生死存亡關頭,反正炒作是美國人的本事,炒作別人的資產,泡沫破掉死的是別人, Fed才不會把利率調高.有中美聯手,這個泡沫短時間內還有的吹.