南韓政府警告北韓可能在週二或週三再試射飛彈, 連續兩天有北韓的消息, 確實讓美元的空頭有些猶豫, 但現在看來真的也只是猶豫, 並未有大舉回補的行動.
央行警告外資匯入的錢不准只放在活存炒匯,不買股就匯走. 去年大選前3/11也有一次一模一樣的警告. http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=24557&ctNode=302&mp=1
那一次因為馬英九大勝, 匯市多瘋了10天到選後, 全球股市則一直到五月份同步反轉.
現在這個時點, 在股市已經大漲了近六成,外資只敢押美元跌, 不願再衝進股市中. 如果我的估計不錯, 台幣的高點大概就在32.55-60吧
人民幣今天fixing6.8285, 長週末前壓迫市場補回空頭部位, 有人說是因為Geithner六一訪問中國, 有人說是北韓的問題, 但中國幹什麼要針對 Geithner?目前為止, 看好亞洲的情緒也沒有任何真正的變化,中國會care北韓?不過是找個藉口罷了, 中國就是不會動它的人民幣!
這個星期有美國公債標售, 債市已經風聲鶴唳一週了, 等會兒來post 債券同事的想法
Huge Treasury auction in coming days, fixed income buyers have told Treasury that no cheap yield for the money. Michael pointed one very good point: bond market has to compete with equity market for investors' money. Only if when reward compensates risk will investors pay, as simple as that. I dont think investors believe that US stocks are by any means cheap after March rally. And if treasury contines to fall, that may drag stocks with it. Will emerging market investors sentiment be strong enough to sustain the correction? interesting.
2009年5月26日 星期二
2009年5月25日 星期一
死都不怕就是要賣美元,買股票
今早盤中傳出北韓又做了一次核試,韓股及匯市以大跌反應;但收盤兩者皆以近平盤收市.當然北韓消息的可靠性目前只有青瓦台一個官方證實, 但這是不是也說明了再大的恐懼目前也大不過市場對風險性資產的貪婪?
2009年5月22日 星期五
還需要賣美元的理由?
S+P以英國債務負擔過高為由, 將它的評等展望調為負向, GBP一個小時內下了250點.
這是一個新聞嗎?有那一個主要工業國不是債臺高築, 思考馬上跳到債務更大條的美國, 美元加速Fed四月會議記錄公布後的空頭, 美債10年殖利率兩天內又由3.15%升到3.33%, EUR連破1.38,1.39, 馬上就是1.40.
美國倒是很樂意見到美元像被沖到馬桶裏的結果
需要複習賣美元的理由?
1. 債務負擔
2. 美國政府對私部門的干預
3. 新興市場與美國的脫鉤. (又來了??)
4. 世界又回到Lehman Bros破產前的正常情形, 對美元的需求已大幅下降, 這也使得過去數個月
囤積美元的部位現在面臨加速出脫的痛苦
5. 美元現在變成carry trade的funding currency. 成為對高息貨幣的拋售對象
這是一個新聞嗎?有那一個主要工業國不是債臺高築, 思考馬上跳到債務更大條的美國, 美元加速Fed四月會議記錄公布後的空頭, 美債10年殖利率兩天內又由3.15%升到3.33%, EUR連破1.38,1.39, 馬上就是1.40.
美國倒是很樂意見到美元像被沖到馬桶裏的結果
需要複習賣美元的理由?
1. 債務負擔
2. 美國政府對私部門的干預
3. 新興市場與美國的脫鉤. (又來了??)
4. 世界又回到Lehman Bros破產前的正常情形, 對美元的需求已大幅下降, 這也使得過去數個月
囤積美元的部位現在面臨加速出脫的痛苦
5. 美元現在變成carry trade的funding currency. 成為對高息貨幣的拋售對象
2009年5月20日 星期三
中國資本輸出, 台灣利多用不完
台灣真的變成中國的一部份?幾乎天天都見到從中國來的利多,又是百億美元採購團, 又是家電進城;台灣也不讓對岸失望, 台銀釋股提高到40%, 不排除陸資. 凡此種種, 真的讓人目不暇給. 以前中國對香港股市直通車都不曾這麼照應, 和股票專業經理人的朋友聊起來,真是被軋到空手了. 都在等利空打下來買,只是利空可能在那裡?
三月到現在, 只要和中國沾上邊的都漲個不停.澳幣, 加幣和亞洲新興市場都是如此. 其實不只是中國,連印度國會選舉執政黨獲勝都被當成歷史事件,股市兩天暴漲20%. 資金真是被零利率給逼瘋了, 看看要漲到什麼地步才會停止?
Goldman decouple 的故事又來了
Jim O'Neill's Latest Thoughts -------------------
1. Who said decoupling is dead? We dubbed 2007 as the Year of Decoupling, we then dubbed 2008 as the Year of Recoupling( managing to confuse a lot of people in the process) and since the mess of last year, it has become ridiculously fashionable to regard decoupling as impossible. This fashionable view itself is ridiculous, as we have shown in so many different ways. GDP performance is not really a true guage.Within economic indicators, domestic demand is probably better, as this reflects more of the economy than countries can influence the destiny of. In this regard, we have showed that for much of the past 2 years of crisis, domestic consumption has held up ok-ish in most of the BRICs, especially led by China. Infact, consistent with this, last week, on the same day, both US and Chinese retail sales were published for April 2009. those that don’t believe that decoupling is possible, take a look at those releases, the difference is massive. One is up more than 14pct year on year, one is down more than 10pct.Interestingly, the Global Markets Group published a new Top Trade , trying to benefit from this decoupling between the US and Chinese consumer, the day before. Should be worth a few shekels or even Yuan……
2. re Chinese data generally last week, the retail sales was the cream of the crop, with a big slowdown in bank lending for April being reported( nothing to worry about, it couldn’t sustain the Jan-Mar pace), and slightly disappointing exports and IP. I think a "disappointing" export number is not only just what the doctor ordered, but also something we should all kind of hope for as China and the world rebalance going forward. It is the age of Chinese domestic demand…….just beginning.
3. A Yuan for your thoughts Mr Zhou? One of the prop guys sent me a fascinating note Friday am about a Bloomberg story on a Caijing magazine interview with President Lula. In it, he suggests that there is no need for them to use US$ on trade between China and Brazil, and he is going to propose this on a visit to Beijing in the near future. This is a real " big picture" story . President Putin said something along these lines last year, and now Lula has. This follows recent policy developments allowing the CNY some usage in Taiwan, the Koreans having said that they had explored the idea of investing some of the their reserves in the CNY some time ago( although rejecting the idea for now), and of course, the fascinating PBOC website article of Governor Zhou on the topic of the SDR. I continue to think this was quite an important speech and think about it frequently. It probably suggests some acceleration and opening up of the use of the currency is ahead, in order to allow it to become part of a revamped SDR. The only question is when? You can see that more and more want to be able to use it.
4. UK companies to list in Beijing? In the same vein, a rather odd development happened last week when the Chinese Vice Premier came to London. He appeared to have reached an agreement with the UK Chancellor, that British companies would be encouraged to list in the future on the Shanghai exchange. I cant imagine this happening next week, and indeed without greater use of the CNY being allowed, I cant imagine it at all. But…………why announce it, unless…….
5. Indian elections. As Tushar Poddar has published over the weekend, these election results look potentially really quite a big development, and as he suggested in his note, given the likelihood that we will have a much more reformist minded government , it seems as though we have found another rather populous and important nation that has some upside potential to our current forecasts. Watch this space. I also suggest that clients re-read the Global Paper that Tushar and I wrote in May 2008, " Ten Things that India needs to do to Achieve its Potential". It is quite likely that the incoming Government will try to implement aspects of what we wrote. As we discussed in this piece, and in many of our BRICs work, if India can undertake reforms to boost its productivity, then this will be the BRIC will has the single best potential of the lot.
6. Global trend GDP growth is close to 4pct. I keep meeting many, including policymakers and other economists, as well as many clients, who actually strongly believe whatever the world growth trend was, it is now lower, possibly much lower, because of the crisis. You can sort of see why if you think that the future and today will remain dominated by the US, UK, Ireland ( Iceland………) why that might be the case. But, as I have written about a lot recently, as 2009 progresses, it is increasingly seeming that this crisis is actually good for China, and now with this positive Indian election result, the 2 really biggies of the BRICs, are set to power on. We actually think that there is little evidence that trend growth in the US will be permanently damaged by this crisis, despite the likelihood that the household savings rate is heading to 8pct as Jan Hatzius reconfirmed is his view in his latest thoughts. This simply means that the consumer is going to take some time to restore its health, not that the US cannot grow close to 3pct in terms of trend. If this is correct, and given what is now emerging in China and India, we are likely to stick with our view, that in fact, the trend rate of growth of the world has probably accelerated to 4pct. If we are correct, then markets have a lot of "recognition" to undertake still, including getting this equity risk premia a lot lower, which will be good for equities and not so great for government bonds.
7. What to watch in terms of Daffodils? Meantime, following the first disappointing week for equities since the March surge, the forthcoming Philly Fed is going to be hugely important as it will allow or deny us " glass half full " guys to march on or not. Mind you, if the policymakers want to continue to interpret all this evidence very cautiously as the Bank of England in the UK did last week, thereby ensuring that they will not take away the party prematurely, that is just fine.
三月到現在, 只要和中國沾上邊的都漲個不停.澳幣, 加幣和亞洲新興市場都是如此. 其實不只是中國,連印度國會選舉執政黨獲勝都被當成歷史事件,股市兩天暴漲20%. 資金真是被零利率給逼瘋了, 看看要漲到什麼地步才會停止?
Goldman decouple 的故事又來了
Jim O'Neill's Latest Thoughts -------------------
1. Who said decoupling is dead? We dubbed 2007 as the Year of Decoupling, we then dubbed 2008 as the Year of Recoupling( managing to confuse a lot of people in the process) and since the mess of last year, it has become ridiculously fashionable to regard decoupling as impossible. This fashionable view itself is ridiculous, as we have shown in so many different ways. GDP performance is not really a true guage.Within economic indicators, domestic demand is probably better, as this reflects more of the economy than countries can influence the destiny of. In this regard, we have showed that for much of the past 2 years of crisis, domestic consumption has held up ok-ish in most of the BRICs, especially led by China. Infact, consistent with this, last week, on the same day, both US and Chinese retail sales were published for April 2009. those that don’t believe that decoupling is possible, take a look at those releases, the difference is massive. One is up more than 14pct year on year, one is down more than 10pct.Interestingly, the Global Markets Group published a new Top Trade , trying to benefit from this decoupling between the US and Chinese consumer, the day before. Should be worth a few shekels or even Yuan……
2. re Chinese data generally last week, the retail sales was the cream of the crop, with a big slowdown in bank lending for April being reported( nothing to worry about, it couldn’t sustain the Jan-Mar pace), and slightly disappointing exports and IP. I think a "disappointing" export number is not only just what the doctor ordered, but also something we should all kind of hope for as China and the world rebalance going forward. It is the age of Chinese domestic demand…….just beginning.
3. A Yuan for your thoughts Mr Zhou? One of the prop guys sent me a fascinating note Friday am about a Bloomberg story on a Caijing magazine interview with President Lula. In it, he suggests that there is no need for them to use US$ on trade between China and Brazil, and he is going to propose this on a visit to Beijing in the near future. This is a real " big picture" story . President Putin said something along these lines last year, and now Lula has. This follows recent policy developments allowing the CNY some usage in Taiwan, the Koreans having said that they had explored the idea of investing some of the their reserves in the CNY some time ago( although rejecting the idea for now), and of course, the fascinating PBOC website article of Governor Zhou on the topic of the SDR. I continue to think this was quite an important speech and think about it frequently. It probably suggests some acceleration and opening up of the use of the currency is ahead, in order to allow it to become part of a revamped SDR. The only question is when? You can see that more and more want to be able to use it.
4. UK companies to list in Beijing? In the same vein, a rather odd development happened last week when the Chinese Vice Premier came to London. He appeared to have reached an agreement with the UK Chancellor, that British companies would be encouraged to list in the future on the Shanghai exchange. I cant imagine this happening next week, and indeed without greater use of the CNY being allowed, I cant imagine it at all. But…………why announce it, unless…….
5. Indian elections. As Tushar Poddar has published over the weekend, these election results look potentially really quite a big development, and as he suggested in his note, given the likelihood that we will have a much more reformist minded government , it seems as though we have found another rather populous and important nation that has some upside potential to our current forecasts. Watch this space. I also suggest that clients re-read the Global Paper that Tushar and I wrote in May 2008, " Ten Things that India needs to do to Achieve its Potential". It is quite likely that the incoming Government will try to implement aspects of what we wrote. As we discussed in this piece, and in many of our BRICs work, if India can undertake reforms to boost its productivity, then this will be the BRIC will has the single best potential of the lot.
6. Global trend GDP growth is close to 4pct. I keep meeting many, including policymakers and other economists, as well as many clients, who actually strongly believe whatever the world growth trend was, it is now lower, possibly much lower, because of the crisis. You can sort of see why if you think that the future and today will remain dominated by the US, UK, Ireland ( Iceland………) why that might be the case. But, as I have written about a lot recently, as 2009 progresses, it is increasingly seeming that this crisis is actually good for China, and now with this positive Indian election result, the 2 really biggies of the BRICs, are set to power on. We actually think that there is little evidence that trend growth in the US will be permanently damaged by this crisis, despite the likelihood that the household savings rate is heading to 8pct as Jan Hatzius reconfirmed is his view in his latest thoughts. This simply means that the consumer is going to take some time to restore its health, not that the US cannot grow close to 3pct in terms of trend. If this is correct, and given what is now emerging in China and India, we are likely to stick with our view, that in fact, the trend rate of growth of the world has probably accelerated to 4pct. If we are correct, then markets have a lot of "recognition" to undertake still, including getting this equity risk premia a lot lower, which will be good for equities and not so great for government bonds.
7. What to watch in terms of Daffodils? Meantime, following the first disappointing week for equities since the March surge, the forthcoming Philly Fed is going to be hugely important as it will allow or deny us " glass half full " guys to march on or not. Mind you, if the policymakers want to continue to interpret all this evidence very cautiously as the Bank of England in the UK did last week, thereby ensuring that they will not take away the party prematurely, that is just fine.
2009年5月15日 星期五
2009年5月14日 星期四
EUR上漲是為了掩護Emerging market 出貨!
NFP之前EUR一直壓在1.34之下, 但眾多Emerging market 早就漲了個不亦樂乎. 當EUR衝到1.3730, 一片美元空頭氣氛時, ZAR, KRW卻停在NFP之前的高點等待獲利了結
所謂空頭反彈, 爛股先偷偷漲翻天, 等到傳統績優藍籌股追上, 便是為營造形勢一片大好, 鼓舞散戶搶進的榮景. 非如此不能掩護爛股的多頭持有部位下車獲利了結
這一趟的Foreign Exchange 不也是這樣?
所謂空頭反彈, 爛股先偷偷漲翻天, 等到傳統績優藍籌股追上, 便是為營造形勢一片大好, 鼓舞散戶搶進的榮景. 非如此不能掩護爛股的多頭持有部位下車獲利了結
這一趟的Foreign Exchange 不也是這樣?
USD小漲, 擦鞋童, 你不是真這麼準吧?
USD走強, 雖然USD index 只是從82上到82.6, 但Emerging market 的拉回幅度是USD index 無法呈現的, ZAR 8.35/8.56 -1.06%, KRW 1242/1257, CAD 1.1554/1.1780 -0.97%,MXN 13.15/13.39 -0.88%, BRL 2.07/2.115 -2.06%, AUD 0.77/0.75 -1.54%, NZD 0.6059/0.5882 -2.31%, EURJPY 132.10/129.35, 現在回想起來昨天一些USD利空不跌就是該縮小short USD部位的時候.
US retail sales -0.4%比預期差,在市場需要漲多調整時,稍差的數字也被當做天大的理由了
美股跌美債漲都是一樣的trading 心態,美債空頭氣氛瀰漫卻不跌就要小心反轉
昨天說到AUD implied vol的變化, 果然預示了市場心態的改變 ,不錯不錯
Jim, good job, you've done it again.
看到1120期商週Coco的一篇漫畫, 描寫台灣"要五毛, 中國給一萬"正好呼應本部落格第一篇台灣中國這場博奕
US retail sales -0.4%比預期差,在市場需要漲多調整時,稍差的數字也被當做天大的理由了
美股跌美債漲都是一樣的trading 心態,美債空頭氣氛瀰漫卻不跌就要小心反轉
昨天說到AUD implied vol的變化, 果然預示了市場心態的改變 ,不錯不錯
Jim, good job, you've done it again.
看到1120期商週Coco的一篇漫畫, 描寫台灣"要五毛, 中國給一萬"正好呼應本部落格第一篇台灣中國這場博奕
2009年5月13日 星期三
融資增幅不及大盤漲幅真的是相對安全?
今早開會, 股票交易員說股票融資增加還不到失控的程度
指數由 3,955到 6,628, 上漲67.5%,
融資1,159億到1,739億, 增加50.04%
老拳師的經驗, 他們說
我的想法是,為什麼只算高低點?用加權平均的概念會不會比較精確?也就是散戶開始點燃熱情的日期給予比較大的注意.
只看4/30以來的跳空缺口,特別是4/30跳空根本買不到, (4/30融資為1,598億), 從5/4 起算, 指數6,285, 融資餘額1,607億,
記下這個想法, 等到日後頭部確認後,再來驗證結果
指數由 3,955到 6,628, 上漲67.5%,
融資1,159億到1,739億, 增加50.04%
老拳師的經驗, 他們說
我的想法是,為什麼只算高低點?用加權平均的概念會不會比較精確?也就是散戶開始點燃熱情的日期給予比較大的注意.
只看4/30以來的跳空缺口,特別是4/30跳空根本買不到, (4/30融資為1,598億), 從5/4 起算, 指數6,285, 融資餘額1,607億,
記下這個想法, 等到日後頭部確認後,再來驗證結果
Jim Rogers? give me a break
Range market原本不知道要記些什麼, EUR 仍然在1.3730 之下, GBP小破近日高點到1.5354, AUD 今早0.7696, NZD 0.6106, 亞洲早上因為美國四月份財政赤字隱憂及日本反對黨表示一但執政將停止買入以美元計價的美國債券,一時間美元空頭氣燄高漲, EUR漲到1.3721.
前面說到原本不知道要記什麼, 但看到報紙 quote Jim Rogers 看空USD的說法, 連結http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR2/4902110.shtml
HAHAHA, 基本上Jim Rogers在我心中跟擦鞋童理論中的擦鞋童沒什麼兩樣,要不是他太笨, 給view的時間晚市場太多, 就是他太邪惡,故意在最後一段的市場行情放消息給散戶讓散戶幫自己抬轎或甚至下車;從去年上半年他喊多商品喊多台灣資產開始, 我便留意他每次叫囂的內容,
最近一次他喊了什麼? 今年一月底當金融市場仍在惶惶不可終日, GBP 受幾家大型英國銀行如RBS,Barclays, HSBC,的利空打擊跌落1.40, 甚至觸及1.35低點, Jim Rogers說英國北海油田蘊藏已經枯竭, 要所有人放空英鎊, 現在又如何?
我自己注意到美國財赤問題是四月中旬, 當時就對這個以前自己沒follow的數字突然出現感到好奇而提高警覺, 雖然我不知道這次Jim Rogers 是不是又這麼準,但是記在這裡以觀後效
另外KRW, ZAR都沒有創新高, 提醒我不要被makket sentiment 帶太遠, 小心為妙
還有, JP Chase 今天特別來問有沒有興趣賣六個月AUD ATMF vol, level 18.3%, Volatility 下了四個月, 終於開始有買氣了?
前面說到原本不知道要記什麼, 但看到報紙 quote Jim Rogers 看空USD的說法, 連結http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR2/4902110.shtml
HAHAHA, 基本上Jim Rogers在我心中跟擦鞋童理論中的擦鞋童沒什麼兩樣,要不是他太笨, 給view的時間晚市場太多, 就是他太邪惡,故意在最後一段的市場行情放消息給散戶讓散戶幫自己抬轎或甚至下車;從去年上半年他喊多商品喊多台灣資產開始, 我便留意他每次叫囂的內容,
最近一次他喊了什麼? 今年一月底當金融市場仍在惶惶不可終日, GBP 受幾家大型英國銀行如RBS,Barclays, HSBC,的利空打擊跌落1.40, 甚至觸及1.35低點, Jim Rogers說英國北海油田蘊藏已經枯竭, 要所有人放空英鎊, 現在又如何?
我自己注意到美國財赤問題是四月中旬, 當時就對這個以前自己沒follow的數字突然出現感到好奇而提高警覺, 雖然我不知道這次Jim Rogers 是不是又這麼準,但是記在這裡以觀後效
另外KRW, ZAR都沒有創新高, 提醒我不要被makket sentiment 帶太遠, 小心為妙
還有, JP Chase 今天特別來問有沒有興趣賣六個月AUD ATMF vol, level 18.3%, Volatility 下了四個月, 終於開始有買氣了?
2009年5月12日 星期二
2009年5月11日 星期一
中國四月份新增貸款5918億
下午4.30,中國公佈四月份新增貸數字,前三個月新增貸款分別為1.62, 1.06及1.89兆,當然這一個數字是不可能無限制地增加,但市場以此為理由,賣出AUD, NZD 等risky assets class currency, 買回USD
稍早便對為什麼EUR只能攻克1.3580而不是1.3730感到疑惑,現在連1.3580都要觀察是否保得住了,IMM EUR long 部位並不大 (3368 口,125,000 eur/每口 ) , EUR應該不致跌太多
相比之下, AUD已經有23,064口, 100,000AUD/每口, 且AUD 是從中國題材席捲股匯市之後獲益最多的, 如果真的要對中國熱修正也該是在AUD上
美國十年公債3.23,又回到上星期四倫敦時間的水準
2009年5月9日 星期六
到底還能樂觀多久?
關於我們到底還能樂觀多久,拜五早上Michael 提了下面幾個問題
1.為什麼EUR仍然漲勢落後? EUR的基本面並不比英美高明到那裡, 在嚴竣的挑戰下仍然抗拒QE,大手筆搶救經濟
2. 因為軋空, S&P有續漲到950-1000的可能.一份對Hedge Fund第一季的績效調查顯示, 幾乎Hedge Fund並沒跟到這次股市的漲升
3.美國公債殖利率的大漲可能預示美國融通聯邦政府赤字有大麻煩;大凡一國金融市場崩潰前夕都從該國利率市場中看到先兆.但這一點英國及德國公債也是一樣, 因此必須觀察相對的後續變化.倒是目前為止新興市場倒還沒見到有恐慌
4. 美股週四的下跌會不會是一日的修正?
為什麼現階段對股市續漲與否有懷疑?
即使美國就業市場惡化的速度已經緩和,但失去的就業可能就回不來了, 人民沒有所得,企業的獲利要從哪來?又碰上英國美國都要加稅, 企業真能面對?
以上問題我要想想答案,倒是賣美元的trade過去三週以來表現不錯, 連 EUR都跟上了
AUD0.7685, ZAR 8.25, 美元似乎進入主跌段了
1.為什麼EUR仍然漲勢落後? EUR的基本面並不比英美高明到那裡, 在嚴竣的挑戰下仍然抗拒QE,大手筆搶救經濟
2. 因為軋空, S&P有續漲到950-1000的可能.一份對Hedge Fund第一季的績效調查顯示, 幾乎Hedge Fund並沒跟到這次股市的漲升
3.美國公債殖利率的大漲可能預示美國融通聯邦政府赤字有大麻煩;大凡一國金融市場崩潰前夕都從該國利率市場中看到先兆.但這一點英國及德國公債也是一樣, 因此必須觀察相對的後續變化.倒是目前為止新興市場倒還沒見到有恐慌
4. 美股週四的下跌會不會是一日的修正?
為什麼現階段對股市續漲與否有懷疑?
即使美國就業市場惡化的速度已經緩和,但失去的就業可能就回不來了, 人民沒有所得,企業的獲利要從哪來?又碰上英國美國都要加稅, 企業真能面對?
以上問題我要想想答案,倒是賣美元的trade過去三週以來表現不錯, 連 EUR都跟上了
AUD0.7685, ZAR 8.25, 美元似乎進入主跌段了
NFP-539k, 歐元終於漲了
決戰場原來是NFP不是ECB?美元弱勢拼圖終於補上了
昨天貼的CITI technial 指EUR在重大事件前表現不如上次3/17Fed QE前的強勢,無法站在1.34等待結果,原來戰場是NFP.
拜五下午EUR衝到1.3430高點後便在1.34徘徊等待NFP, 週四ECB 證明是個次要事件, 洗掉最後一次信心不足的多頭部位後, 終於過了1.35, 對各主要貨幣的cross也稍微回升;但如果目前的氣氛已經是擔憂inflation, (例如昨天公債的表現) EUR cross, 對AUD, SEK, NOK 可能將維持偏弱.
週四晚間亞洲貨幣的漲多拉回到週五亞洲時間沒有獲得認同, 反而是一個跌深買進, 大家不管NFP如何,先賣美元就對了. NY收盤,亞幣已經又到波段高點,一個月KRW 1225/30, TWD 32.70/73
月初,央行有充足時間守匯,但外資還是匯入...
十年美債殖利率從3.34回跌3.28,
昨天貼的CITI technial 指EUR在重大事件前表現不如上次3/17Fed QE前的強勢,無法站在1.34等待結果,原來戰場是NFP.
拜五下午EUR衝到1.3430高點後便在1.34徘徊等待NFP, 週四ECB 證明是個次要事件, 洗掉最後一次信心不足的多頭部位後, 終於過了1.35, 對各主要貨幣的cross也稍微回升;但如果目前的氣氛已經是擔憂inflation, (例如昨天公債的表現) EUR cross, 對AUD, SEK, NOK 可能將維持偏弱.
週四晚間亞洲貨幣的漲多拉回到週五亞洲時間沒有獲得認同, 反而是一個跌深買進, 大家不管NFP如何,先賣美元就對了. NY收盤,亞幣已經又到波段高點,一個月KRW 1225/30, TWD 32.70/73
月初,央行有充足時間守匯,但外資還是匯入...
十年美債殖利率從3.34回跌3.28,
2009年5月8日 星期五
赤字預算振興經濟, 事情變得有些棘手?
昨晚的公債交易是個大殺戮, 從歐洲時間就開始苗頭不對,美債十年殖利率已經先上了四.五點, BOE宣布增加買入公債500億英鎊也幫不上忙;美國三十年公債auction的結果與when issue差了十餘個bp,赤字預算碰到了trouble.
中國指責各國QE危及公債市場的安定, 債市以此為題發揮
一篇CITI從TA角度討論EUR的文章
會貼這篇是因為CITI在此之前認為EUR在ECB之後要往1.40去,但前天改了看法, 雖然文末也說可能只是接下來24-48小時的看法, 但值得留存
圖貼的很差
We are very intrigued by a number of the similarities in the price action from the 1.3739 high (the day after the Fed meeting) to the recent low at 1.2885 and back up again and that seen from the 28 January high at 1.3335 to the low at 1.2457 and the subsequent bounce into the day before the Fed meeting
• Firstly the late January to early March fall was from 1.3335 to 1.2457 (878 points) while the high to low move this time was from 1.3739 to 1.2885 (854 points)• In both down moves we have 3 well-defined lower highs and lower lows.
• In March we failed to get a bullish key day at the low by just 21 pips while in April we did indeed post a bullish key day reversal at the lows.
• In the January –March fall the period from the start of that move to the day before the Fed meeting was 34 trading days. As at today the period from the 1.3739 high to today has been 34 trading days
• On the close of the day before the Fed meeting EURUSD was sitting with a closing break above the prior corrective high at 1.2992 suggesting a potentially bullish outcome. Low and behold the Fed announced quantitative easing and in the 2-day period of 18-19 March EURUSD rallied 722 points from the prior day close. (One could argue that there was a supportive bullish technical picture ready to go if it got a catalyst, which obviously it did)CitiFX Technicals
• In addition 10 year U.S. yields were sitting close to the peak of the Jan-Feb rally ahead of this meeting and fell sharply on the announcement.
• What about today?
• Interestingly while today EURUSD did trade above the peak of the prior bounce at 1.3395 it did not close above it unlike on the 17th March.
• In addition for the second time in this down move EURUSD was unable to overcome a 76.4% pullback level.
• All this on a day when
o A variety of G10 and EM currencies had a good performance against the USD as the Equity market posted a positive performance.
o As a consequence the EURO traded poorly not just against the USD but also against a host of currencies.
o Crude Oil broke its good resistance area around $54.66 and moved higher and that did not help the Euro.
o German 10 year yields tested the highs of the March-April bounce
What does this suggest to us?
It suggests that the Euro is set up to get hit just like the USD appeared to be set up to get hit on 18th March (Not necessarily to the same degree)
EURUSD closed at 1.3017 the day before the Fed surprised with QE. What if the ECB provides a dovish surprise tomorrow? Maybe a bigger cut in rates? Maybe their version of QE? Given the deteriorating economic backdrop in Europe a surprise is not inconceivable.
The present EURUSD setup up suggests a non-linear reaction i.e. a dovish surprise looks much more likely to illicit a sharp move to the down side while an as expected outcome may have little material effect. Therefore despite our medium-term bullish EURUSD view the downside seems to suggest greater risk in the coming 24-48 hours.
2009年5月7日 星期四
ECB怎麼辦?
EUR/USD 又從1.3375退回來, 已經是兩天內第二次了, 在所有其他貨幣都已經創幾個月的新高, EUR的弱勢當然很令人困惑. 有說的是ECB也要跟進數量寬鬆,所以大家寧願遠離EUR.但ECB 要做的事有什麼是大家不知道的?
ECB meeting.
1. Our baseline expectations include a 25bps cut in the refi rate to 1%, an unchanged deposit rate at 0.25% and a lengthening of maturities for the repo facility to 9-12 months from the current 6 months.
2. There could also be an announcement to purchase private sector assets. It’s very unlikely though that they will announce any form of sovereign debt purchase.
Overall though, we still expect the Fed to do more in terms of relative QE, which is supportive of our gradual EUR/$ appreciation view over the next 6 months.
Other than the ECB, we have central bank meeting in the UK where the MPC could possibly announce an expansion of its £75bn asset purchase programme. The size is highly uncertain though, but one possibility is that they will continue for now, to acquire assets at the existing pace of £25bn per month."
連BOE可能擴大QE的規模GBP都站回1.51,. EUR有什麼黑幕?
金融時報剛剛刊出IMF更正對東歐國家外債數字的估計
Red-faced IMF fixes east Europe error: The International Monetary Fund has corrected an embarrassing error that led to the publication of exaggerated estimates of the external debt levels of crisis-hit eastern European states. The ratio for the Czech Republic was cut from 236 per cent to 89 per cent and Estonia’s was reduced to 132 per cent from 210 per cent. It is understood the figure for Ukraine is also being cut to 116 per cent from 208 per cent, that Lithuania’s ratio of 425 per cent may also be recalculated and that others may follow..The IMF said on Wednesday it would verify its numbers and publish correct figures on its website as soon as they were available. “We regret any confusion that may have arisen as a result of our publication of erroneous figures.”
這對EUR應該是一個正面的消息, 總之我是long EUR, 美元的弱勢應該就缺這一塊拼圖了吧?
各國的公債殖利率在歐洲時間都跳上來,應該是BOE的擴大QE有關
台股盤中曾經殺了110點, 但尾盤竟然收平, 期貨仍然是近0.6%的正價差, 真的是欲小不易的盤
正好小i也出了一篇說故事文,連結看這裏
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/izaax/12362415
澳洲四月份就業人數預期是衰退減緩25k, 結果竟是增加27k;澳幣當然再漲,從 0.7470上到0.7560 ,雖然一度被弱勢EUR帶下來0.7510,但現在又到了今天的最高點 0.7570
ECB meeting.
1. Our baseline expectations include a 25bps cut in the refi rate to 1%, an unchanged deposit rate at 0.25% and a lengthening of maturities for the repo facility to 9-12 months from the current 6 months.
2. There could also be an announcement to purchase private sector assets. It’s very unlikely though that they will announce any form of sovereign debt purchase.
Overall though, we still expect the Fed to do more in terms of relative QE, which is supportive of our gradual EUR/$ appreciation view over the next 6 months.
Other than the ECB, we have central bank meeting in the UK where the MPC could possibly announce an expansion of its £75bn asset purchase programme. The size is highly uncertain though, but one possibility is that they will continue for now, to acquire assets at the existing pace of £25bn per month."
連BOE可能擴大QE的規模GBP都站回1.51,. EUR有什麼黑幕?
金融時報剛剛刊出IMF更正對東歐國家外債數字的估計
Red-faced IMF fixes east Europe error: The International Monetary Fund has corrected an embarrassing error that led to the publication of exaggerated estimates of the external debt levels of crisis-hit eastern European states. The ratio for the Czech Republic was cut from 236 per cent to 89 per cent and Estonia’s was reduced to 132 per cent from 210 per cent. It is understood the figure for Ukraine is also being cut to 116 per cent from 208 per cent, that Lithuania’s ratio of 425 per cent may also be recalculated and that others may follow..The IMF said on Wednesday it would verify its numbers and publish correct figures on its website as soon as they were available. “We regret any confusion that may have arisen as a result of our publication of erroneous figures.”
這對EUR應該是一個正面的消息, 總之我是long EUR, 美元的弱勢應該就缺這一塊拼圖了吧?
各國的公債殖利率在歐洲時間都跳上來,應該是BOE的擴大QE有關
台股盤中曾經殺了110點, 但尾盤竟然收平, 期貨仍然是近0.6%的正價差, 真的是欲小不易的盤
正好小i也出了一篇說故事文,連結看這裏
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/izaax/12362415
澳洲四月份就業人數預期是衰退減緩25k, 結果竟是增加27k;澳幣當然再漲,從 0.7470上到0.7560 ,雖然一度被弱勢EUR帶下來0.7510,但現在又到了今天的最高點 0.7570
2009年5月6日 星期三
滿天謠言只為騙你下車?
兩天前就該見結果的美國銀行業壓力測試延至七號, 滿天的謠言就傳不停:又是Wells Fargo也不太妙,到今早變成BA需要340億美金, 所有漲多的風險資產都順勢回檔, 但據同事表示其實很多幣別的隱含變動率並未升高(1 month GBP 14.3, AUD 仍在19 )信用加碼也並未增加,顯示這些消息都不影響市場加碼風險資產的態度
外資是之前空台灣金融股空過了頭?只要稍微叫得出名字的金融股竟然都收漲停;(當然不能是泛官股, 那些金控賣給陸資的難度相對高)這可不是一開盤就鎖死, 而是經過大量換手之後, 到底金融股有什麼在發酵?
拜金融股之助, 台股今天還是強不可抑; 從5千到6千5, 自營商還是沒有多頭部位,真要被軋空手到死?
美元今天藉美銀的故事小反彈, 但下午一段中國對數量寬鬆政策的批評又讓美元死回去
China C. Bank sees FX depreciation risk for key currencies, including Dollar
Depreaciation risk stems from quantitative easing policies.
所有風險資產歷經亞洲時間的無厘頭殺低,又連袂回到接近昨日的高點;市場完全無視明天歐洲央行的舉動及壓力測試的結果,在這麼短時間全部回補所有失土,技術分析上實在是很強勢的信號.我覺得最遲明天美國的金融股也要跟著噴出了!
**南非今天選總統, 雖然早知Zuma當選, 但市場仍然因此對過去三週世界最強的南非幣獲利了結**
外資是之前空台灣金融股空過了頭?只要稍微叫得出名字的金融股竟然都收漲停;(當然不能是泛官股, 那些金控賣給陸資的難度相對高)這可不是一開盤就鎖死, 而是經過大量換手之後, 到底金融股有什麼在發酵?
拜金融股之助, 台股今天還是強不可抑; 從5千到6千5, 自營商還是沒有多頭部位,真要被軋空手到死?
美元今天藉美銀的故事小反彈, 但下午一段中國對數量寬鬆政策的批評又讓美元死回去
China C. Bank sees FX depreciation risk for key currencies, including Dollar
Depreaciation risk stems from quantitative easing policies.
所有風險資產歷經亞洲時間的無厘頭殺低,又連袂回到接近昨日的高點;市場完全無視明天歐洲央行的舉動及壓力測試的結果,在這麼短時間全部回補所有失土,技術分析上實在是很強勢的信號.我覺得最遲明天美國的金融股也要跟著噴出了!
**南非今天選總統, 雖然早知Zuma當選, 但市場仍然因此對過去三週世界最強的南非幣獲利了結**
台灣電子股ADR收低
TSMC-5.74%, AUO-5.33%, ASX -3.81%, UMC-2.85%, ETW則平盤
除了UMC以跳空-10%開出較戲劇性外, TSMC, AUO, 都是低開4%, ETF則整天都在平盤上下
除了UMC以跳空-10%開出較戲劇性外, TSMC, AUO, 都是低開4%, ETF則整天都在平盤上下
2009年5月5日 星期二
沒有ADR買家想像的強勢
台灣50 ETF打開了,大型電子股要買的也都買的到了
因為portfolio managers怕買不到台灣股票, 願意付出高premium 追價, 過去三天台灣電子股的ADR在NY的trading, 漲幅平均25%, 今天台灣除了幾家大金控公司仍然漲停之外, 大型股電子股都已打開, 台積電甚至下跌1元, 自4/30以來漲約10%,今天稍後美國的ADR要怎麼trade?
過去因為台灣QFII相對嚴格的管理, 在多頭市場下願意多付premium買ADR, 如今fund house從現股合成ADR 或ETF都容易多了, 超過10%的premium 能維持多久?從 day trader 的角度,今天晚上甚至可能要留一些underweight的部位以備昨天追得太高的人要停損,或是賺到的人要下車?
今晚的股票如何交易令人期待
因為portfolio managers怕買不到台灣股票, 願意付出高premium 追價, 過去三天台灣電子股的ADR在NY的trading, 漲幅平均25%, 今天台灣除了幾家大金控公司仍然漲停之外, 大型股電子股都已打開, 台積電甚至下跌1元, 自4/30以來漲約10%,今天稍後美國的ADR要怎麼trade?
過去因為台灣QFII相對嚴格的管理, 在多頭市場下願意多付premium買ADR, 如今fund house從現股合成ADR 或ETF都容易多了, 超過10%的premium 能維持多久?從 day trader 的角度,今天晚上甚至可能要留一些underweight的部位以備昨天追得太高的人要停損,或是賺到的人要下車?
今晚的股票如何交易令人期待
2009年5月4日 星期一
主權就這樣被掏空?
遠傳老闆徐旭東打了與中國移動合作的第一槍, 點燃了台灣資產價格的火藥庫, 這個舉動看在馬政府的眼裏真是像你我一般黎民百姓的樂不可支?
如果我是政府主事者,徐到底有沒有把我放在眼裏?別忘了SOGO案還沒結束,竟然又聯合中國來將台灣政府一軍.以商圍政到了這個地步,馬政府真是這樣溫良恭儉讓?坐視商人由中國指揮,挑戰自己的主權;如果真是這樣,那這個政府還有什麼未來可言?
除非政府真的到了只是以股市指數高低做為施政成敗的指標, 在野黨完全不警告人民向中國傾斜到連主權都不在乎的危險?
記得馬競選的時候最怕民進黨貼他賣台的標籤, 現在能否盼望他還有那時候的臨淵履薄?
生意人當然要講效率和時機,但民真能與官鬥?徐老闆曾說SOGO案讓他後悔的不得了,我恐怕這件遠傳案會是他下一個更大後悔的不得了的開始?徐老闆的風險意識果然是不同於一般人
如果我是政府主事者,徐到底有沒有把我放在眼裏?別忘了SOGO案還沒結束,竟然又聯合中國來將台灣政府一軍.以商圍政到了這個地步,馬政府真是這樣溫良恭儉讓?坐視商人由中國指揮,挑戰自己的主權;如果真是這樣,那這個政府還有什麼未來可言?
除非政府真的到了只是以股市指數高低做為施政成敗的指標, 在野黨完全不警告人民向中國傾斜到連主權都不在乎的危險?
記得馬競選的時候最怕民進黨貼他賣台的標籤, 現在能否盼望他還有那時候的臨淵履薄?
生意人當然要講效率和時機,但民真能與官鬥?徐老闆曾說SOGO案讓他後悔的不得了,我恐怕這件遠傳案會是他下一個更大後悔的不得了的開始?徐老闆的風險意識果然是不同於一般人
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