台灣真的變成中國的一部份?幾乎天天都見到從中國來的利多,又是百億美元採購團, 又是家電進城;台灣也不讓對岸失望, 台銀釋股提高到40%, 不排除陸資. 凡此種種, 真的讓人目不暇給. 以前中國對香港股市直通車都不曾這麼照應, 和股票專業經理人的朋友聊起來,真是被軋到空手了. 都在等利空打下來買,只是利空可能在那裡?
三月到現在, 只要和中國沾上邊的都漲個不停.澳幣, 加幣和亞洲新興市場都是如此. 其實不只是中國,連印度國會選舉執政黨獲勝都被當成歷史事件,股市兩天暴漲20%. 資金真是被零利率給逼瘋了, 看看要漲到什麼地步才會停止?
Goldman decouple 的故事又來了
Jim O'Neill's Latest Thoughts -------------------
1. Who said decoupling is dead? We dubbed 2007 as the Year of Decoupling, we then dubbed 2008 as the Year of Recoupling( managing to confuse a lot of people in the process) and since the mess of last year, it has become ridiculously fashionable to regard decoupling as impossible. This fashionable view itself is ridiculous, as we have shown in so many different ways. GDP performance is not really a true guage.Within economic indicators, domestic demand is probably better, as this reflects more of the economy than countries can influence the destiny of. In this regard, we have showed that for much of the past 2 years of crisis, domestic consumption has held up ok-ish in most of the BRICs, especially led by China. Infact, consistent with this, last week, on the same day, both US and Chinese retail sales were published for April 2009. those that don’t believe that decoupling is possible, take a look at those releases, the difference is massive. One is up more than 14pct year on year, one is down more than 10pct.Interestingly, the Global Markets Group published a new Top Trade , trying to benefit from this decoupling between the US and Chinese consumer, the day before. Should be worth a few shekels or even Yuan……
2. re Chinese data generally last week, the retail sales was the cream of the crop, with a big slowdown in bank lending for April being reported( nothing to worry about, it couldn’t sustain the Jan-Mar pace), and slightly disappointing exports and IP. I think a "disappointing" export number is not only just what the doctor ordered, but also something we should all kind of hope for as China and the world rebalance going forward. It is the age of Chinese domestic demand…….just beginning.
3. A Yuan for your thoughts Mr Zhou? One of the prop guys sent me a fascinating note Friday am about a Bloomberg story on a Caijing magazine interview with President Lula. In it, he suggests that there is no need for them to use US$ on trade between China and Brazil, and he is going to propose this on a visit to Beijing in the near future. This is a real " big picture" story . President Putin said something along these lines last year, and now Lula has. This follows recent policy developments allowing the CNY some usage in Taiwan, the Koreans having said that they had explored the idea of investing some of the their reserves in the CNY some time ago( although rejecting the idea for now), and of course, the fascinating PBOC website article of Governor Zhou on the topic of the SDR. I continue to think this was quite an important speech and think about it frequently. It probably suggests some acceleration and opening up of the use of the currency is ahead, in order to allow it to become part of a revamped SDR. The only question is when? You can see that more and more want to be able to use it.
4. UK companies to list in Beijing? In the same vein, a rather odd development happened last week when the Chinese Vice Premier came to London. He appeared to have reached an agreement with the UK Chancellor, that British companies would be encouraged to list in the future on the Shanghai exchange. I cant imagine this happening next week, and indeed without greater use of the CNY being allowed, I cant imagine it at all. But…………why announce it, unless…….
5. Indian elections. As Tushar Poddar has published over the weekend, these election results look potentially really quite a big development, and as he suggested in his note, given the likelihood that we will have a much more reformist minded government , it seems as though we have found another rather populous and important nation that has some upside potential to our current forecasts. Watch this space. I also suggest that clients re-read the Global Paper that Tushar and I wrote in May 2008, " Ten Things that India needs to do to Achieve its Potential". It is quite likely that the incoming Government will try to implement aspects of what we wrote. As we discussed in this piece, and in many of our BRICs work, if India can undertake reforms to boost its productivity, then this will be the BRIC will has the single best potential of the lot.
6. Global trend GDP growth is close to 4pct. I keep meeting many, including policymakers and other economists, as well as many clients, who actually strongly believe whatever the world growth trend was, it is now lower, possibly much lower, because of the crisis. You can sort of see why if you think that the future and today will remain dominated by the US, UK, Ireland ( Iceland………) why that might be the case. But, as I have written about a lot recently, as 2009 progresses, it is increasingly seeming that this crisis is actually good for China, and now with this positive Indian election result, the 2 really biggies of the BRICs, are set to power on. We actually think that there is little evidence that trend growth in the US will be permanently damaged by this crisis, despite the likelihood that the household savings rate is heading to 8pct as Jan Hatzius reconfirmed is his view in his latest thoughts. This simply means that the consumer is going to take some time to restore its health, not that the US cannot grow close to 3pct in terms of trend. If this is correct, and given what is now emerging in China and India, we are likely to stick with our view, that in fact, the trend rate of growth of the world has probably accelerated to 4pct. If we are correct, then markets have a lot of "recognition" to undertake still, including getting this equity risk premia a lot lower, which will be good for equities and not so great for government bonds.
7. What to watch in terms of Daffodils? Meantime, following the first disappointing week for equities since the March surge, the forthcoming Philly Fed is going to be hugely important as it will allow or deny us " glass half full " guys to march on or not. Mind you, if the policymakers want to continue to interpret all this evidence very cautiously as the Bank of England in the UK did last week, thereby ensuring that they will not take away the party prematurely, that is just fine.
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