會貼這篇是因為CITI在此之前認為EUR在ECB之後要往1.40去,但前天改了看法, 雖然文末也說可能只是接下來24-48小時的看法, 但值得留存
圖貼的很差
We are very intrigued by a number of the similarities in the price action from the 1.3739 high (the day after the Fed meeting) to the recent low at 1.2885 and back up again and that seen from the 28 January high at 1.3335 to the low at 1.2457 and the subsequent bounce into the day before the Fed meeting
• Firstly the late January to early March fall was from 1.3335 to 1.2457 (878 points) while the high to low move this time was from 1.3739 to 1.2885 (854 points)• In both down moves we have 3 well-defined lower highs and lower lows.
• In March we failed to get a bullish key day at the low by just 21 pips while in April we did indeed post a bullish key day reversal at the lows.
• In the January –March fall the period from the start of that move to the day before the Fed meeting was 34 trading days. As at today the period from the 1.3739 high to today has been 34 trading days
• On the close of the day before the Fed meeting EURUSD was sitting with a closing break above the prior corrective high at 1.2992 suggesting a potentially bullish outcome. Low and behold the Fed announced quantitative easing and in the 2-day period of 18-19 March EURUSD rallied 722 points from the prior day close. (One could argue that there was a supportive bullish technical picture ready to go if it got a catalyst, which obviously it did)CitiFX Technicals
• In addition 10 year U.S. yields were sitting close to the peak of the Jan-Feb rally ahead of this meeting and fell sharply on the announcement.
• What about today?
• Interestingly while today EURUSD did trade above the peak of the prior bounce at 1.3395 it did not close above it unlike on the 17th March.
• In addition for the second time in this down move EURUSD was unable to overcome a 76.4% pullback level.
• All this on a day when
o A variety of G10 and EM currencies had a good performance against the USD as the Equity market posted a positive performance.
o As a consequence the EURO traded poorly not just against the USD but also against a host of currencies.
o Crude Oil broke its good resistance area around $54.66 and moved higher and that did not help the Euro.
o German 10 year yields tested the highs of the March-April bounce
What does this suggest to us?
It suggests that the Euro is set up to get hit just like the USD appeared to be set up to get hit on 18th March (Not necessarily to the same degree)
EURUSD closed at 1.3017 the day before the Fed surprised with QE. What if the ECB provides a dovish surprise tomorrow? Maybe a bigger cut in rates? Maybe their version of QE? Given the deteriorating economic backdrop in Europe a surprise is not inconceivable.
The present EURUSD setup up suggests a non-linear reaction i.e. a dovish surprise looks much more likely to illicit a sharp move to the down side while an as expected outcome may have little material effect. Therefore despite our medium-term bullish EURUSD view the downside seems to suggest greater risk in the coming 24-48 hours.
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