比較有回補美元空頭的味道

南韓政府警告北韓可能在週二或週三再試射飛彈, 連續兩天有北韓的消息, 確實讓美元的空頭有些猶豫, 但現在看來真的也只是猶豫, 並未有大舉回補的行動.

央行警告外資匯入的錢不准只放在活存炒匯,不買股就匯走. 去年大選前3/11也有一次一模一樣的警告. http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=24557&ctNode=302&mp=1
那一次因為馬英九大勝, 匯市多瘋了10天到選後, 全球股市則一直到五月份同步反轉.
現在這個時點, 在股市已經大漲了近六成,外資只敢押美元跌, 不願再衝進股市中. 如果我的估計不錯, 台幣的高點大概就在32.55-60吧

人民幣今天fixing6.8285, 長週末前壓迫市場補回空頭部位, 有人說是因為Geithner六一訪問中國, 有人說是北韓的問題, 但中國幹什麼要針對 Geithner?目前為止, 看好亞洲的情緒也沒有任何真正的變化,中國會care北韓?不過是找個藉口罷了, 中國就是不會動它的人民幣!

這個星期有美國公債標售, 債市已經風聲鶴唳一週了, 等會兒來post 債券同事的想法

Huge Treasury auction in coming days, fixed income buyers have told Treasury that no cheap yield for the money. Michael pointed one very good point: bond market has to compete with equity market for investors' money. Only if when reward compensates risk will investors pay, as simple as that. I dont think investors believe that US stocks are by any means cheap after March rally. And if treasury contines to fall, that may drag stocks with it. Will emerging market investors sentiment be strong enough to sustain the correction? interesting.