前面一半是no brainer, 我喜歡的是後面的ETF list.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33533541/
2009年10月31日 星期六
月線連七紅結束,CITIGROUP又成落水狗
今天報紙頭條為昨天GDP數字發布後股市大漲慶賀的墨水還沒乾呢, 今天股市硬是以比昨天漲點還大的跌點讓華爾街哀鴻遍野.
開盤前的數字, Consumer Spending 下跌, Personal Consumption Expenditure Index 上漲,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/business/31markets.html?hp
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/business/economy/31econ.html?ref=economy
價格上漲加上支出減少, 如果不能轉嫁給消費者, 企業遭受的是雙重的打擊.
市場對十月三十一日股票的大跌歸納出經濟基本面與消息面兩個利空.基本面來說, 據商務部的數據, 九月份消費者的可支配所得與八月份相比持平, 但消費者硬是減少了0.5%的消費支出;消息面則來自CITIGROUP.在GS及JP已經還掉聯邦政府所注入資金,逃出政府營運規範後, CITIGROUP仍受制於450億美元的聯邦資金. (這點完全說明了GS在美國政壇呼風喚雨的能力以及美國政府的顢頇或更可怕的事實:官商勾結--想法後詳)
今天整體銀行類股下跌了近5%,
Big banks like Citigroup, which have rallied strongly this year as the financial crisis receded, tumbled sharply. Banking shares fell nearly 5 percent. Shares of Citigroup dropped 22 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $4.09, after an analyst raised concerns that the company might have to write off a big portion of nearly $38 billion of tax benefits.
Investors fear banks’ losses on loans will continue to worsen, particularly if unemployment keeps rising. A report due next week is expected to show that the jobless rate might be close to 10 percent. Others worry how banks will make up lost revenue as Washington cracks down on credit card penalties and debit card overdraft fees.
Questions about the ability of Citigroup to take advantage of certain tax benefits have swirled around the company for months. Tax accounting experts say that federal securities regulators have demanded that financial companies start marking down the value of those benefits if their profit outlook remains dim.
稅法我不懂,何況是美國的稅法.銀行利潤與tax credit的關係只能看日後發展結果.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33552566
這裡我只想說對美國政府處理GS的個人想法.
去年底當美國政府向所有銀行不分好壞一律注資的時候, 所持的理由是若非如此, 可能造成市場對接受資金銀行狀況的想像, 加速被注資銀行股價的崩跌. 一年以後,當市況扭轉, GS要根據大好表現分紅, 急欲擺脫聯邦政府對薪資的限制時, 十億美元說還就還;如今市場果然對仍無法償還聯邦資金的銀行有疑慮造成CITI,BA三不五時被點名有重大問題.
如果去年美國政府的邏輯是對的,那為什麼相同的作法現在不延續?
GS的獲利本領無庸置疑,但是去年底如果沒有政府介入解除GS的流動性危機, 玩的太大的GS一樣要下臺鞠躬. (情況就像當年的LTCB.諾貝爾獎得主的hedge fund因為流動性問題,一夕冰消土崩.)一旦被海嘯吞沒,眾多破產的GS合夥人能這麼快翻身?在百分之10的美國就業人力仍爲失業所苦時,賺得盆滿缽盈的GS要高調還清政府注資,接著大舉分紅.過了河就要拆橋,讓別人活不下去. 而美國政府一聲不吭, 像一般民間借貸有借有還. ((當然各國政府的資金也不是白送的,8%的年利率,以現在的資金情況怎麼看也是高利貸 有辦法籌資的銀行當然要迫不及待以股換債,最近歐洲的ING就是如此)).然後說GS已經歸還政府資金, 政府無法對GS屬於私人企業行為的分紅置喙, 政府規範仍接受聯邦資金的七家金融機構薪資.
GS就這樣逃過市場生存法則的懲罰,美國政府的昨是今非, 實在讓我這個外國人瞠目結舌. 或許有支持GS的看法認為GS夠精明,能充分掌握政府 too big to fall的恐懼,把自己的命運與整體金融市場結合, 當然可以爲如此的具體表現獲取獎勵. 真是如此? 如果去年底的美國財政部長不是Henry Paulson,今天還有GS嗎?
任何事情玩到盡就可能反嗜, 英文叫Backfire, 我好奇GS這塊金字招牌會不會有朝一日栽跟斗---不是在市場風險裡, 而是一場階級革命...
只是不知道這個被狂牛症牛排和冰淇淋塞的腦滿腸肥,以為只要每天唱天佑阿美利加, 就可以胡搞瞎搞的阿美利加國國民,需要多久時間才能瞭解到真相.
開盤前的數字, Consumer Spending 下跌, Personal Consumption Expenditure Index 上漲,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/business/31markets.html?hp
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/business/economy/31econ.html?ref=economy
價格上漲加上支出減少, 如果不能轉嫁給消費者, 企業遭受的是雙重的打擊.
市場對十月三十一日股票的大跌歸納出經濟基本面與消息面兩個利空.基本面來說, 據商務部的數據, 九月份消費者的可支配所得與八月份相比持平, 但消費者硬是減少了0.5%的消費支出;消息面則來自CITIGROUP.在GS及JP已經還掉聯邦政府所注入資金,逃出政府營運規範後, CITIGROUP仍受制於450億美元的聯邦資金. (這點完全說明了GS在美國政壇呼風喚雨的能力以及美國政府的顢頇或更可怕的事實:官商勾結--想法後詳)
今天整體銀行類股下跌了近5%,
Big banks like Citigroup, which have rallied strongly this year as the financial crisis receded, tumbled sharply. Banking shares fell nearly 5 percent. Shares of Citigroup dropped 22 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $4.09, after an analyst raised concerns that the company might have to write off a big portion of nearly $38 billion of tax benefits.
Investors fear banks’ losses on loans will continue to worsen, particularly if unemployment keeps rising. A report due next week is expected to show that the jobless rate might be close to 10 percent. Others worry how banks will make up lost revenue as Washington cracks down on credit card penalties and debit card overdraft fees.
Questions about the ability of Citigroup to take advantage of certain tax benefits have swirled around the company for months. Tax accounting experts say that federal securities regulators have demanded that financial companies start marking down the value of those benefits if their profit outlook remains dim.
稅法我不懂,何況是美國的稅法.銀行利潤與tax credit的關係只能看日後發展結果.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33552566
這裡我只想說對美國政府處理GS的個人想法.
去年底當美國政府向所有銀行不分好壞一律注資的時候, 所持的理由是若非如此, 可能造成市場對接受資金銀行狀況的想像, 加速被注資銀行股價的崩跌. 一年以後,當市況扭轉, GS要根據大好表現分紅, 急欲擺脫聯邦政府對薪資的限制時, 十億美元說還就還;如今市場果然對仍無法償還聯邦資金的銀行有疑慮造成CITI,BA三不五時被點名有重大問題.
如果去年美國政府的邏輯是對的,那為什麼相同的作法現在不延續?
GS的獲利本領無庸置疑,但是去年底如果沒有政府介入解除GS的流動性危機, 玩的太大的GS一樣要下臺鞠躬. (情況就像當年的LTCB.諾貝爾獎得主的hedge fund因為流動性問題,一夕冰消土崩.)一旦被海嘯吞沒,眾多破產的GS合夥人能這麼快翻身?在百分之10的美國就業人力仍爲失業所苦時,賺得盆滿缽盈的GS要高調還清政府注資,接著大舉分紅.過了河就要拆橋,讓別人活不下去. 而美國政府一聲不吭, 像一般民間借貸有借有還. ((當然各國政府的資金也不是白送的,8%的年利率,以現在的資金情況怎麼看也是高利貸 有辦法籌資的銀行當然要迫不及待以股換債,最近歐洲的ING就是如此)).然後說GS已經歸還政府資金, 政府無法對GS屬於私人企業行為的分紅置喙, 政府規範仍接受聯邦資金的七家金融機構薪資.
GS就這樣逃過市場生存法則的懲罰,美國政府的昨是今非, 實在讓我這個外國人瞠目結舌. 或許有支持GS的看法認為GS夠精明,能充分掌握政府 too big to fall的恐懼,把自己的命運與整體金融市場結合, 當然可以爲如此的具體表現獲取獎勵. 真是如此? 如果去年底的美國財政部長不是Henry Paulson,今天還有GS嗎?
任何事情玩到盡就可能反嗜, 英文叫Backfire, 我好奇GS這塊金字招牌會不會有朝一日栽跟斗---不是在市場風險裡, 而是一場階級革命...
只是不知道這個被狂牛症牛排和冰淇淋塞的腦滿腸肥,以為只要每天唱天佑阿美利加, 就可以胡搞瞎搞的阿美利加國國民,需要多久時間才能瞭解到真相.
2009年10月28日 星期三
沒有天天漲的股市,也沒有天天跌的美元
華爾街公佈第三季季報, 看到10/14 JP Morgan Chase, 10/15 Goldman拜trading 部門抑注的強勁獲利,也有仍然被不動產放款壞帳深深困擾的10/15 CITIGROUP和10/16 BOFA.
撇開科技業, 分析這些金融業的的結果, 如果不是有極堅強的trading , 沒有一個能逃過美國經濟仍在低檔掙扎的痛椘,當消費者付不出房貸時, 要怎麼寄望銀行賺錢?只是大家都被JP和GS的美麗數字給蠱惑.
但現在回過頭來想想, 我們可能有另一個股市上漲50%以上, credit spread 繼續tighten 同樣幅度的第四季, 讓GS和JP再有美好的另一季報嗎?這麼簡單的事實大家都沒想過?尤其當油價也終於向弱勢美元表態, 突破75元以後,企業要怎麼讓消費者從所剩有限的口袋裡掏出錢來?
要不是現在FED這麼積極地印鈔票,中國用力向全世界灑美金, 所有的央行都加入這個瘋狂派對,現在的一切美好當然不會這麼美好.APPLE 的樂觀可能是從競爭者的market share 中搶到的customer demand, 萬股皆漲的世代已經早結束了, 一切都要買領導品牌的現象沒有比現在更明顯了
英鎊在兩個星期前10/12被摜到1.58, 但隨著BOE 出乎意料的宣示可能不會再增加QE之後, 英鎊的軋空行情就勢如破竹.
是什麼引爆了美金的軋空?似乎是昨天的股市大反轉. 11.30NY時間是轉弱點. ING宣布要發行新股, 賣掉保險集團
The central part of the latest restructuring is to pull out of bancassurance once and for all. ING plans to sell or float its insurance and investment management operations by 2013. The company has taken pride in the scale and earnings stability provided by the model it is abandoning, but the broader benefits never really delivered as advertised, and failed to compensate for the cost of a conglomerate discount. The downturn exacerbated the flaws: ING’s market capitalisation is just €24bn – the book value of the insurance business €22bn.
The group already had embarked on a “Back to Basics” turnaround plan in April. But it wasn’t basic enough for regulators. Though ING has already sold operations on four continents in a push to raise up to €8bn, it is now being forced to unload yet more. The US internet bank, ING Direct USA, and its $80bn of deposits will be sacrificed, also by 2013. Parts of the Dutch loan book – including 6pc of the country’s mortgage market – also will be spun off. This will leave ING as a bank focused on the Benelux region with considerably less international reach.
Meanwhile, the proceeds from a €7.5bn rights issue will be put to good use. Some E6bn will help to repay half the state’s capital earlier than expected, thereby reducing its cost. Instead of a 50pc exit premium, ING will instead pay a pro-rated 8.5pc coupon and a lower premium based on its share price. The deal gives Dutch taxpayers an accelerated return of at least 15pc. They’ll also get extra compensation for protecting €22bn of ING’s mortgage-backed securities. The original scheme has turned out to be too much of a bargain, and ING will shell out an extra E1.3bn fee. These twiddles look fair: taxpayers are being compensated for having propped up ING, but not so generously that the company is pointlessly crippled.
What ING spent 20 years building is being undone – at least on paper – in one. But without the crisis, it might not have found the right path so swiftly.
在大部分風險資產來自美元的carry trade, 股市回檔自然會引起美元空頭回補的聯想. 先看看能股市能回跌多少吧.
這次英鎊美元其實有些齊漲齊跌, 英鎊先兩個星期空頭回補, 然後是美元. 提醒永遠不要忘記獲利了結. 上星期GS 教大家T/P AUD, 改以long EUR來short USD. 結果EUR跌得並不比AUD少.今天早上的Gartment Letter:
THE US DOLLAR IS MATERIALLY STRONGER, and it is so relative to nearly
every major and minor currency marked here each day, save for the Russian Ruble and the British Pound Sterling. Further, as we note from the chart at the upper left this page, the EUR traced out an outside reversal to the downside yesterday; that is, having gone to a new multi-year high relative to the US dollar in early, quiet trade, the EUR moved lower and then
traded downward through the lows of the previous trading session marking a “classical” reversal to the downside. We do not, and we shall not, take this “reversal” lightly, for as we have said, the short side of the US dollar had become inordinately and almost incomprehensively one-sided in recent days and weeks, to the point where the slightest change in psychology would send the dollar soaring as short ran for cover. That day came yesterday.
撇開科技業, 分析這些金融業的的結果, 如果不是有極堅強的trading , 沒有一個能逃過美國經濟仍在低檔掙扎的痛椘,當消費者付不出房貸時, 要怎麼寄望銀行賺錢?只是大家都被JP和GS的美麗數字給蠱惑.
但現在回過頭來想想, 我們可能有另一個股市上漲50%以上, credit spread 繼續tighten 同樣幅度的第四季, 讓GS和JP再有美好的另一季報嗎?這麼簡單的事實大家都沒想過?尤其當油價也終於向弱勢美元表態, 突破75元以後,企業要怎麼讓消費者從所剩有限的口袋裡掏出錢來?
要不是現在FED這麼積極地印鈔票,中國用力向全世界灑美金, 所有的央行都加入這個瘋狂派對,現在的一切美好當然不會這麼美好.APPLE 的樂觀可能是從競爭者的market share 中搶到的customer demand, 萬股皆漲的世代已經早結束了, 一切都要買領導品牌的現象沒有比現在更明顯了
英鎊在兩個星期前10/12被摜到1.58, 但隨著BOE 出乎意料的宣示可能不會再增加QE之後, 英鎊的軋空行情就勢如破竹.
是什麼引爆了美金的軋空?似乎是昨天的股市大反轉. 11.30NY時間是轉弱點. ING宣布要發行新股, 賣掉保險集團
ING may not have had a good crisis but it is at least making good use of it
New management at the Dutch financial group has moved quickly to simplify, shrink and retreat even more than intended only months ago – albeit with a helpful nudge from local and European authorities.The central part of the latest restructuring is to pull out of bancassurance once and for all. ING plans to sell or float its insurance and investment management operations by 2013. The company has taken pride in the scale and earnings stability provided by the model it is abandoning, but the broader benefits never really delivered as advertised, and failed to compensate for the cost of a conglomerate discount. The downturn exacerbated the flaws: ING’s market capitalisation is just €24bn – the book value of the insurance business €22bn.
The group already had embarked on a “Back to Basics” turnaround plan in April. But it wasn’t basic enough for regulators. Though ING has already sold operations on four continents in a push to raise up to €8bn, it is now being forced to unload yet more. The US internet bank, ING Direct USA, and its $80bn of deposits will be sacrificed, also by 2013. Parts of the Dutch loan book – including 6pc of the country’s mortgage market – also will be spun off. This will leave ING as a bank focused on the Benelux region with considerably less international reach.
Meanwhile, the proceeds from a €7.5bn rights issue will be put to good use. Some E6bn will help to repay half the state’s capital earlier than expected, thereby reducing its cost. Instead of a 50pc exit premium, ING will instead pay a pro-rated 8.5pc coupon and a lower premium based on its share price. The deal gives Dutch taxpayers an accelerated return of at least 15pc. They’ll also get extra compensation for protecting €22bn of ING’s mortgage-backed securities. The original scheme has turned out to be too much of a bargain, and ING will shell out an extra E1.3bn fee. These twiddles look fair: taxpayers are being compensated for having propped up ING, but not so generously that the company is pointlessly crippled.
What ING spent 20 years building is being undone – at least on paper – in one. But without the crisis, it might not have found the right path so swiftly.
在大部分風險資產來自美元的carry trade, 股市回檔自然會引起美元空頭回補的聯想. 先看看能股市能回跌多少吧.
這次英鎊美元其實有些齊漲齊跌, 英鎊先兩個星期空頭回補, 然後是美元. 提醒永遠不要忘記獲利了結. 上星期GS 教大家T/P AUD, 改以long EUR來short USD. 結果EUR跌得並不比AUD少.今天早上的Gartment Letter:
THE US DOLLAR IS MATERIALLY STRONGER, and it is so relative to nearly
every major and minor currency marked here each day, save for the Russian Ruble and the British Pound Sterling. Further, as we note from the chart at the upper left this page, the EUR traced out an outside reversal to the downside yesterday; that is, having gone to a new multi-year high relative to the US dollar in early, quiet trade, the EUR moved lower and then
traded downward through the lows of the previous trading session marking a “classical” reversal to the downside. We do not, and we shall not, take this “reversal” lightly, for as we have said, the short side of the US dollar had become inordinately and almost incomprehensively one-sided in recent days and weeks, to the point where the slightest change in psychology would send the dollar soaring as short ran for cover. That day came yesterday.
2009年10月24日 星期六
利多不漲
今天公佈成屋銷售, Microsoft的數字也優於預期但股市卻是從開盤就一路跌到收盤,雖然不是收在最低卻也離最低不遠. 前天一根帶量的大黑棒被昨天更大量的一根紅棒包覆,讓我以為今天應該續創新高,但證明市場仍然比我高明.what's up? CNBC給了下面三點解釋:
1) while home sales were strong, many analysts believe the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit greatly inflated the figure, so it is being discounted heavily;
The figure is 90 percent for technology stocks and 59 percent for financials.
That said, it only took one Wall Street analyst sell recommendation this week—on a bank—to tip the whole market downwards for a day. The Dow drops 100 points on Wednesday after banking analyst Dick Bove downgraded his rating on Wells Fargo.
1) while home sales were strong, many analysts believe the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit greatly inflated the figure, so it is being discounted heavily;
2) while the news is still good, the big advance in stocks in the last six months means you don't get as much of a pop when you are trading at 19x earnings, rather than the 16x earnings we were trading at a few months ago (market is tired);
3) perhaps the most important issue is the way the dollar is now being used. It's a dollar carry trade, with the dollar being used to buy other assets around the world, much as the yen was used previously.
What this means is that any signs of economic strength means a higher likelihood that interest rates will go up, which will increase the cost of using the dollar for the carry trade.
That causes the dollar to go up on short covering, which puts pressure on stocks.
以下這個現象很傳神地說明了目前居高思危的市場心態
The latest Thomson Reuters research into the U.S. earnings season, for example, shows that with a third of the S&P 500 index having reported, 78 percent have beaten expectations.The figure is 90 percent for technology stocks and 59 percent for financials.
That said, it only took one Wall Street analyst sell recommendation this week—on a bank—to tip the whole market downwards for a day. The Dow drops 100 points on Wednesday after banking analyst Dick Bove downgraded his rating on Wells Fargo.
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