利多不漲

今天公佈成屋銷售, Microsoft的數字也優於預期但股市卻是從開盤就一路跌到收盤,雖然不是收在最低卻也離最低不遠. 前天一根帶量的大黑棒被昨天更大量的一根紅棒包覆,讓我以為今天應該續創新高,但證明市場仍然比我高明.what's up? CNBC給了下面三點解釋:
1) while home sales were strong, many analysts believe the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit greatly inflated the figure, so it is being discounted heavily;

2) while the news is still good, the big advance in stocks in the last six months means you don't get as much of a pop when you are trading at 19x earnings, rather than the 16x earnings we were trading at a few months ago (market is tired);

3) perhaps the most important issue is the way the dollar is now being used. It's a dollar carry trade, with the dollar being used to buy other assets around the world, much as the yen was used previously.

What this means is that any signs of economic strength means a higher likelihood that interest rates will go up, which will increase the cost of using the dollar for the carry trade.

That causes the dollar to go up on short covering, which puts pressure on stocks.

以下這個現象很傳神地說明了目前居高思危的市場心態

The latest Thomson Reuters research into the U.S. earnings season, for example, shows that with a third of the S&P 500 index having reported, 78 percent have beaten expectations.

The figure is 90 percent for technology stocks and 59 percent for financials.

That said, it only took one Wall Street analyst sell recommendation this week—on a bank—to tip the whole market downwards for a day. The Dow drops 100 points on Wednesday after banking analyst Dick Bove downgraded his rating on Wells Fargo.