撇開科技業, 分析這些金融業的的結果, 如果不是有極堅強的trading , 沒有一個能逃過美國經濟仍在低檔掙扎的痛椘,當消費者付不出房貸時, 要怎麼寄望銀行賺錢?只是大家都被JP和GS的美麗數字給蠱惑.
但現在回過頭來想想, 我們可能有另一個股市上漲50%以上, credit spread 繼續tighten 同樣幅度的第四季, 讓GS和JP再有美好的另一季報嗎?這麼簡單的事實大家都沒想過?尤其當油價也終於向弱勢美元表態, 突破75元以後,企業要怎麼讓消費者從所剩有限的口袋裡掏出錢來?
要不是現在FED這麼積極地印鈔票,中國用力向全世界灑美金, 所有的央行都加入這個瘋狂派對,現在的一切美好當然不會這麼美好.APPLE 的樂觀可能是從競爭者的market share 中搶到的customer demand, 萬股皆漲的世代已經早結束了, 一切都要買領導品牌的現象沒有比現在更明顯了
英鎊在兩個星期前10/12被摜到1.58, 但隨著BOE 出乎意料的宣示可能不會再增加QE之後, 英鎊的軋空行情就勢如破竹.
是什麼引爆了美金的軋空?似乎是昨天的股市大反轉. 11.30NY時間是轉弱點. ING宣布要發行新股, 賣掉保險集團
ING may not have had a good crisis but it is at least making good use of it
New management at the Dutch financial group has moved quickly to simplify, shrink and retreat even more than intended only months ago – albeit with a helpful nudge from local and European authorities.The central part of the latest restructuring is to pull out of bancassurance once and for all. ING plans to sell or float its insurance and investment management operations by 2013. The company has taken pride in the scale and earnings stability provided by the model it is abandoning, but the broader benefits never really delivered as advertised, and failed to compensate for the cost of a conglomerate discount. The downturn exacerbated the flaws: ING’s market capitalisation is just €24bn – the book value of the insurance business €22bn.
The group already had embarked on a “Back to Basics” turnaround plan in April. But it wasn’t basic enough for regulators. Though ING has already sold operations on four continents in a push to raise up to €8bn, it is now being forced to unload yet more. The US internet bank, ING Direct USA, and its $80bn of deposits will be sacrificed, also by 2013. Parts of the Dutch loan book – including 6pc of the country’s mortgage market – also will be spun off. This will leave ING as a bank focused on the Benelux region with considerably less international reach.
Meanwhile, the proceeds from a €7.5bn rights issue will be put to good use. Some E6bn will help to repay half the state’s capital earlier than expected, thereby reducing its cost. Instead of a 50pc exit premium, ING will instead pay a pro-rated 8.5pc coupon and a lower premium based on its share price. The deal gives Dutch taxpayers an accelerated return of at least 15pc. They’ll also get extra compensation for protecting €22bn of ING’s mortgage-backed securities. The original scheme has turned out to be too much of a bargain, and ING will shell out an extra E1.3bn fee. These twiddles look fair: taxpayers are being compensated for having propped up ING, but not so generously that the company is pointlessly crippled.
What ING spent 20 years building is being undone – at least on paper – in one. But without the crisis, it might not have found the right path so swiftly.
在大部分風險資產來自美元的carry trade, 股市回檔自然會引起美元空頭回補的聯想. 先看看能股市能回跌多少吧.
這次英鎊美元其實有些齊漲齊跌, 英鎊先兩個星期空頭回補, 然後是美元. 提醒永遠不要忘記獲利了結. 上星期GS 教大家T/P AUD, 改以long EUR來short USD. 結果EUR跌得並不比AUD少.今天早上的Gartment Letter:
THE US DOLLAR IS MATERIALLY STRONGER, and it is so relative to nearly
every major and minor currency marked here each day, save for the Russian Ruble and the British Pound Sterling. Further, as we note from the chart at the upper left this page, the EUR traced out an outside reversal to the downside yesterday; that is, having gone to a new multi-year high relative to the US dollar in early, quiet trade, the EUR moved lower and then
traded downward through the lows of the previous trading session marking a “classical” reversal to the downside. We do not, and we shall not, take this “reversal” lightly, for as we have said, the short side of the US dollar had become inordinately and almost incomprehensively one-sided in recent days and weeks, to the point where the slightest change in psychology would send the dollar soaring as short ran for cover. That day came yesterday.
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