美元的反彈

自從12/4 出乎意料好的NFP之後, 美元氣氛就變的困難了
對於FED的政策預期從2010年不會調息, 變成2010六月就可能開始調高利率
同時間歐洲的數字開始低於預期
USD與EUR之間彼此的消長就已經開始變的明顯了
希臘和西班牙的rating我認為不是issue,.
今天稍早奧地利將幾家銀行國有化讓EUR 再跌一百點

Enough reason to sell EUR
After a soft factory orders reported in Germany on Monday, industrial production dipped in Germany and was flat the UK in data reported overnight for October.
The EUR has hardly traded on relative fundamentals this year. The EUR has benefitted from general improvement in risk appetite and a willingness of the market to see the USD as the preferred funding currency and suffering due to FX reserves diversification.
However, since the stronger than expected US employment report, the USD has lifted. It has also received support from some unwinding in risk appetite. The sharp retracement in the price of gold also lends support for the USD, suggesting the market sentiment towards the dollar has improved.
Given the specific risks around EUR (specifically the sovereign rating of Greece), a flattening of economic recovery, and a high probability that risk appetite remains under pressure into year end, near term risk suggests further downside for EUR.

At this stage the EUR is still maintaining a series of higher highs and higher lows since its low for the year in March. Although it has broken below its range that prevailed over the last month. It will encounter support at its last major low on 3-Nov at 1.4626, and resistance at the bottom of its old range (around 1.48). A break below 1.4626 would be a significant set-back. Selling towards 1.48 with a stop above is an appropriate short term strategy. Longer term we may find 1.40/45 region holds and is the staging point for recovery.

為什麼過去八個月以來Risk on , USD falls 的corelation 被打破?
要想一想