不管是不是懵到, 這兩篇來的時機實在太準
On GBP
on Jun 3, by Jonathan Clark
Today is the Most Likely Day for a Sterling Peak (3 Jun 2009) By Jonathan Clark
Many of the technical indicators we follow tell us the uptrend in the major currencies is proceeding at a pace that is unsustainable. The cycles argue that these major currencies have reached the most likely time for a peak, but it is difficult to identify the exact day the high will be seen. One reason for this is there is a tendency for very strong trends to become stretched in terms of time, so the penalty for picking a peak early can be punitive. It is also difficult to single out a particular currency to sell for the next downtrend, but it is clear to us the group would include GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD. Now that we have given warnings, we will attempt to identify both a good currency to sell and when to do it.
The British pound acts like a carry currency, even though its interest rates are roughly the same as the Eurozone. We come to this conclusion because EUR/GBP trades opposite of carry indices. The interest rate differential between the US and UK has been narrowing during the past three weeks and this makes the pound vulnerable to weakness, even though it continues to charge ahead. It will be overbought according to our Short-term Sentiment Measure if above 1.6676 at 14:00 GMT and this should be a difficult level to surpass. The shorter cycles call for Wednesday to be another up day and late trading is the most likely time for the uptrend to end. Our target is the1.6675 area and if seen is a good place to establish a small short position. Following this peak it should decline into Friday and an aggressive downmove will signal the start of a sustained decline. It will take a close below 1.6175 to signal the pound is headed lower into late July and this weakness will probably last into September.
We will then look to establish full short pound positions and our initial target will become the 1.5500 area. If the currency fails to see much weakness into the end of the week then it will turn higher and make a final upmove lasting into the second half of next week. A close above 1.6675 signals the pound can reach the 1.6900 area before peaking. We consider this more positive outlook unlikely, but we cannot entirely rule it out and therefore we are cautious sellers until there is evidence it has peaked.
On Equity
The fun is over
June 4, 2009By Taylor
Three months ago in our letter of March 5, which was titled When Something Looks Inevitable, It Isn’t, we argued that the extremely pessimistic market mood was turning and that there was at least a month of strength ahead. For equities we were a day early, and most every other market reversed in the five trading days surrounding the letter. Some of that was luck, but some was logic and analytical technique. We are happy that the strength infused all markets everywhere and that it lasted almost three months, but now the situation has reversed and we have to argue that this period of relative joy is over. Although we would be foolish to say that there is the same inevitability to the current strength, in general the markets are almost historically over-optimistic. By our measures, the only rallies this aggressive were seen in 1932, 1933, 1938, and 1982. Although one could argue that this is a similar historic reversal, we would disagree as price to earnings, price to book, and price to sales ratios were far lower than they are today, and in the first three, dividends were above 10-year yields.
Although we believe that this will be the top for risk loving trades, we assure you that we are nervous about making this claim. What tips the scale for us are the coincident cyclical relationships that we see in many, many different markets today, and the relationship between the current situation and several others in the past. Whether we look at currency pairs, commodities, or equity indices, the moves last fall were extremely large, but in most cases not outside of historical precedent; however, the reversals in the past three months have been extraordinary and often beyond precedent. Although market movements can be measured many different ways, it is hard to understate the overbought nature of the current market. It is not only prices but also positioning indicators that are extreme.
The put/call ratio is at the lowest point since the equity market high in October 2007, and the current percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average is higher than it was then. The Daily Sentiment Index in the US is at 86%, only 2% below the level at the October 2007 peak, but we must remember that this number often reached levels over 90% in the 2006 and early 2007 time periods. Although we cannot guarantee this high, we are sure that this is a terrible time to buy equities, not only in the United States, but anywhere in the world.
The next few months should see investors develop a new, more conservative estimate of the future course of the global economy and its relationship to the markets. Because of the aggressive nature of the US, Japanese, British, and Swiss response to the liquidity needs of the global financial community, investors are no longer expecting the system to suffer a liquidity crisis, but the economic fallout from the liquidity shortage is not the only issue the global markets are facing. The recession has not run its course and by some measures, such as employment and construction activity, it has just begun. With a crippled financial system, the recovery from this sharp decline will be much slower than the recoveries from the shallow 1990 and the 2001 recessions, which took both more than two years to shift from a deflationary bias toward inflation and to begin adding jobs.
With so much excess capacity,earnings will decline further in the next year and corporate and real-estate related bankruptcies will soar. As this recession has a long way to go, the risk of insolvency will take its usual place as the issue to worry about. Our cycles say that equities will decline sharply to September at a minimum, but more likely will remain under pressure into the end of the year. The dollar should strengthen for a few months too, and interest rates should drop again as a more realistic view of the future becomes widespread.
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